Person:
Pérez-Soba Aguilar, Inés

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First Name
Inés
Last Name
Pérez-Soba Aguilar
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/74715
Affiliation
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Faculty / Institute
Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales
Department
Economía Aplicada, Pública y Política
Area
Economía Aplicada
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2013 - 20142
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    From real estate to consumption: the role of credit markets in the USA
    (Applied Economics, 2014) Márquez De La Cruz, Elena; Martínez Cañete, Ana Rosa; Pérez-Soba Aguilar, Inés
    The aim of this article is to test whether the credit market conditions affect the strength of transmission of real estate wealth effects on household consumption in the US economy. Although many different works have dealt with the analysis of the existence of a real estate wealth effect, most of them as a reaction to the dramatic increase of housing prices in several OECD countries, there are only few papers analysing whether the consumption response depends on the positive or negative sign of the wealth shock and, as far as we know, none of them takes the effects of credit market conditions on that asymmetric response into account. This article tries to fill the existing gap in the literature on this matter. From an econometric perspective, we estimate the asymmetries in the consumption response within the momentum threshold autoregressive model (M-TAR) proposed by Enders and Siklos (2001), but following Stevans (2004), it is applied to a multivariate framework. The main results show that the credit market conditions play a significant role in the transmission of changes in real estate wealth to consumption. In addition, we find that there exists an asymmetric behaviour in the US aggregate consumption spending responses to real estate wealth and credit market shocks, which is only significant when a negative shock takes place.
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    Wealth shocks, credit conditions and asymmetric consumption response: empirical evidence for the UK
    (Economic Modelling, 2013) Márquez De La Cruz, Elena; Martínez Cañete, Ana Rosa; Pérez-Soba Aguilar, Inés
    The evolution of real estate prices and the stock market indices in several OECD countries, such as the UK, has attracted researchers' interest to the empirical analysis of consumers' response to subsequent changes in wealth. In this line, this paper investigates the existence of wealth effects in the UK economy, taking into account the credit conditions of financial markets, and whether consumption responds asymmetrically to a positive or negative financial and housing wealth shocks. We apply the Enders and Siklos (2001) M-TAR methodology modified, for application in a multivariate framework, following Stevans (2004); unlike this author, both financial and real estate wealth are included. The results show that there is a consumption wealth effect and that the consumption discrepancies resulting from an unanticipated positive change in real estate wealth are eliminated whereas those resulting from a negative change are not; however, when the changes in the UK households financial wealth are considered, we find that consumption responds only to negative unanticipated changes in such a wealth.