Person: Ayarzagüena Porras, Blanca
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First Name
Blanca
Last Name
Ayarzagüena Porras
Affiliation
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Faculty / Institute
Ciencias Físicas
Department
Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica
Area
Física de la Tierra
Identifiers
6 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
Item A multi-parametric perspective of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet(Climate dynamics, 2022) Barriopedro Cepero, David; Ayarzagüena Porras, Blanca; García Burgos, Marina; García Herrera, Ricardo FranciscoThe North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (EDJ) is an essential component of the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation. It has been typically described in terms of latitude and intensity but this is not enough to fully characterize its variability and complex EDJ confgurations. Here, we present a set of daily parameters of the EDJ based on low-tropospheric zonal wind data for the 1948–2020 period. They describe the intensity, sharpness, location, edges, tilt and other zonal asymmetries of the EDJ, therefore dissecting its structure beyond the latitudinal regimes. This allows for assessments of specifc EDJ aspects and a multi-parametric treatment of EDJ confgurations in a manageable way. Overall, variations in EDJ parameters refect distinctive patterns of eddy forcing and wave breaking, with anticyclonic eddies playing a major role in shaping the EDJ structure. A multimodal behavior of the EDJ is only detected in latitude, which largely infuences the longitudinal position of the EDJ. Other aspects of the EDJ are less constrained by the latitude and display a variety of confgurations. Four multi-parametric states (northern, central, tilted and split EDJs) provide a satisfactory description of recurrent patterns of the EDJ. They participate in meridional migrations of the EDJ, but yield less dramatic transitions than viewed from the latitudinal perspective. Finally, the EDJ parameters help to better understand the EDJ infuence on European climate. In many regions, latitude and intensity contain limited information on near-surface anomalies, and their signals can be masked by the additional efect of other EDJ parameters.Item On the representation of major stratospheric warmings in reanalyses(Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 2019) Ayarzagüena Porras, Blanca; Palmeiro Núñez, Froila María; Barriopedro Cepero, David; Calvo Fernández, Natalia; Langematz, Ulrike; Shibata, KiyotakaMajor sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) represent one of the most abrupt phenomena of the boreal wintertime stratospheric variability, and constitute the clearest example of coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere. A good representation of SSWs in climate models is required to reduce their biases and uncertainties in future projections of stratospheric variability. The ability of models to reproduce these phenomena is usually assessed with just one reanalysis. However, the number of reanalyses has increased in the last decade and their own biases may affect the model evaluation. Here we compare the representation of the main aspects of SSWs across reanalyses. The examination of their main characteristics in the pre- and post-satellite periods reveals that reanalyses behave very similarly in both periods. However, discrepancies are larger in the pre-satellite period compared to afterwards, particularly for the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. All datasets reproduce similarly the specific features of wavenumber-1 and wavenumber-2 SSWs. A good agreement among reanalyses is also found for triggering mechanisms, tropospheric precursors, and surface response. In particular, differences in blocking precursor activity of SSWs across reanalyses are much smaller than between blocking definitions.Item Stratospheric connection to the abrupt end of the 2016/2017 iberian drought(Geophysical Research Letters, 2018) Ayargüena Porras, Blanca; Barriopedro Cepero, David; Garrido Pérez, José Manuel; Ábalos Álvarez, Marta; De La Cámara Illescas, Álvaro; García Herrera, Ricardo Francisco; Calvo, N.; Ordóñez García, Carlos; Ayarzagüena Porras, BlancaSouthwestern Europe experienced extraordinary rainy and windy conditions in March 2018, leading to the end of the most severe drought since 1970 at continental scale. This anomalous weather was linked to a persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern. Two weeks earlier a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) took place, preceded by the strongest planetary wave activity on record. In this study, we explore the connection between the SSW and the weather shift by employing a weather regime approach and flow analogues. The timing of the downward propagation of the stratospheric anomalies, the transition to and persistence of the negative North Atlantic Oscillation weather regime, and the sudden precipitation increase are all consistent with the typical tropospheric state after SSWs. Our results evidence a significant role of the 2018 SSW in the record-breaking precipitation event.Item Jet configurations leading to extreme winter temperatures over Europe(Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2023) García Burgos, Marina; Ayarzagüena Porras, Blanca; Barriopedro Cepero, David; García Herrera, Ricardo FranciscoThe North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (EDJ) is the main driver of winter weather in Europe and has often been described by its latitude or strength. Here, we show that the influence of the EDJ on European winter temperature extremes can be better characterized by a multiparametric perspective that accounts for additional aspects of the EDJ structure (tilt, zonal elongation, etc.). We identify four regions where extreme temperatures are distinctly associated with the EDJ: Scandinavia, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Western Mediterranean (WMED). Overall, the anomalous horizontal advection induced by blockings during cold spells and enhanced westerlies during warm events is the main mechanism leading to extreme event occurrence. However, diabatic processes play an important role in WMED region. Both processes generate asymmetric effects in minimum and maximum temperatures contributing to higher intensities of cold than warm events. These extreme events are associated with different EDJ configurations, which typically involve perturbed EDJs during cold spells and strong tilted EDJs during warm events, but with important variations depending on the region. In almost every region, the combined effects of more than two EDJ parameters yield significant increases in the probability of cold and warm events, suggesting an oversimplification of traditional approaches based on a single EDJ parameter. We show, using logistic regression models, that, although important, latitude and intensity are often unable to discriminate unequivocally the region of extreme event occurrence, and in some regions, they do not drive the largest changes in the odds of extremes.Item A multi‑parametric perspective of the North Atlantic eddy‑driven jet(Climate Dynamics, 2022) Barriopedro Cepero, David; Ayarzagüena Porras, Blanca; García-Burgos, Marina; García Herrera, Ricardo FranciscoThe North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (EDJ) is an essential component of the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation. It has been typically described in terms of latitude and intensity but this is not enough to fully characterize its variability and complex EDJ configurations. Here, we present a set of daily parameters of the EDJ based on low-tropospheric zonal wind data for the 1948–2020 period. They describe the intensity, sharpness, location, edges, tilt and other zonal asymmetries of the EDJ, therefore dissecting its structure beyond the latitudinal regimes. This allows for assessments of specific EDJ aspects and a multi-parametric treatment of EDJ configurations in a manageable way. Overall, variations in EDJ parameters reflect distinctive patterns of eddy forcing and wave breaking, with anticyclonic eddies playing a major role in shaping the EDJ structure. A multimodal behavior of the EDJ is only detected in latitude, which largely influences the longitudinal position of the EDJ. Other aspects of the EDJ are less constrained by the latitude and display a variety of configurations. Four multi-parametric states (northern, central, tilted and split EDJs) provide a satisfactory description of recurrent patterns of the EDJ. They participate in meridional migrations of the EDJ, but yield less dramatic transitions than viewed from the latitudinal perspective. Finally, the EDJ parameters help to better understand the EDJ influence on European climate. In many regions, latitude and intensity contain limited information on near-surface anomalies, and their signals can be masked by the additional effect of other EDJ parameters.Item Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems(Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022) Lawrence, Zachary D.; Ábalos Álvarez, Marta; Ayarzagüena Porras, Blanca; Barriopedro Cepero, David; Calvo Fernández, Natalia; De La Cámara Illescas, Álvaro; Rachel W.-Y. WuThe stratosphere can be a source of predictability for surface weather on timescales of several weeks to months. However, the potential predictive skill gained from stratospheric variability can be limited by biases in the representation of stratospheric processes and the coupling of the stratosphere with surface climate in forecast systems. This study provides a first systematic identification of model biases in the stratosphere across a wide range of subseasonal forecast systems. It is found that many of the forecast systems considered exhibit warm global mean temperature biases from the lower to middle stratosphere, too strong/cold wintertime polar vortices, and too cold extratropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere regions. Furthermore, tropical stratospheric anomalies associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation tend to decay toward each system's climatology with lead time. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), most systems do not capture the seasonal cycle of extreme vortex event probabilities, with an underestimation of sudden stratospheric warming events and an overestimation of strong vortex events in January. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), springtime interannual variability of the polar vortex is generally underestimated, but the timing of the final breakdown of the polar vortex often happens too early in many of the prediction systems. These stratospheric biases tend to be considerably worse in systems with lower model lid heights. In both hemispheres, most systems with low-top atmospheric models also consistently underestimate the upward wave driving that affects the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. We expect that the biases identified here will help guide model development for sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, and further our understanding of the role of the stratosphere for predictive skill in the troposphere.