Person:
Vela Pérez, María

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First Name
María
Last Name
Vela Pérez
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/74842
Affiliation
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Faculty / Institute
Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales
Department
Economía Financiera, Actuarial y Estadística
Area
Estadística e Investigación Operativa
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    A simple but complex enough -SIR type model to be used with COVID-19 real data. Application to the case of Italy
    (Physica D: nonlinear phenomena, 2021) Fernández, M. R.; Kubik, Alicja Barbara; Ivorra, Benjamín Pierre Paul; Vela Pérez, María; Ramos Del Olmo, Ángel Manuel
    Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in China many models have appeared in the literature, trying to simulate its dynamics. Focusing on modeling the biological and sociological mechanisms which influence the disease spread, the basic reference example is the SIR model. However, it is too simple to be able to model those mechanisms (including the three main types of control measures: social distancing, contact tracing and health system measures) to fit real data and to simulate possible future scenarios. A question, then, arises: how much and how do we need to complexify a SIR model? We develop a -SEIHQRD model, which may be the simplest one satisfying the mentioned requirements for arbitrary territories and can be simplified in particular cases. We show its very good performance in the Italian case and study different future scenarios.