Person:
Cárdenas Del Rey, Luis

First Name

Luis

Last Name

Cárdenas Del Rey

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/74773

Affiliation

Universidad Complutense de Madrid

Faculty / Institute

Ciencias Políticas y Sociología

Department

Economía Aplicada, Pública y Política

Area

Fundamentos del Análisis Económico

Identifiers

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 21

Revisiting francoist developmentalism: the influence of wages in the Spanish growth model
(Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2020) Cárdenas Del Rey, Luis; Fernández Sánchez, Rafael
This article studies the growth of the Spanish economy during 1957–1975, known as the period of Francoist developmentalism or the Technocratic Stage of Francoism. We aim to contribute to an explanation of the intense growth in domestic demand and investment that occurred during that time, which remains unstudied despite many analyses of the “Spanish economic miracle”. Following Bhaduri & Marglin's models, our main thesis holds that an increase in the wage share, resulting from the greater bargaining power of workers, had a positive effect on growth, productivity, and investment; we suggest the existence of a wage-led model, including feedback effects that such a model of growth entails. This hypothesis is tested, and confirmed, using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model.
Economía poskeynesiana
(Hacia un economía más justa : Manual de corrientes económicas heterodoxas, 2020) Ayala, Iván; Cárdenas Del Rey, Luis
La segmentación laboral durante la recuperación económica: empleo atípico y rotación
(Cuadernos de relaciones laborales, 2020) Cárdenas Del Rey, Luis
En este trabajo se aborda el estudio de la evolución del empleo entre 2005 y 2018 en la economía española utilizando el marco teórico de la Teoría de la Segmentación Laboral (TSL). En primer lugar, se cuantifica el empleo atípico en el 50% del total de la afiliación, tras una caída transitoria provocada esencialmente por la crisis económica se produce un fuerte auge, especialmente entre los jóvenes. En segundo lugar, se comprueba que la inestabilidad de los contratos temporales se ha incrementado, al caer la duración media de los contratos, lo cual parece ir asociado a al aumento de los contratos de muy corta duración (7 días o menos). Estos cambios se explican esencialmente porque cuatro subgrupos profesionales, característicos del segmento secundario, tienen un mayor peso en la estructura de contratación. Lo cual puede ser atribuido a una mayor rotación como resultado de las políticas de “flexibilización” laboral introducidas en la última década.
Does deregulation decrease unemployment?: an empirical analysis of the Spanish labour market
(International Labour Review, 2020) Herrero Alba, Daniel; Cárdenas Del Rey, Luis; López Gallego, Julián
Spain underwent two major labour reforms in 2010 and 2012 under the assumption that deregulating the labour market and decentralizing collective bargaining would automatically reduce unemployment (deregulation hypothesis). This article highlights the impact of demand and the sectoral structure of the economy to explain the behaviour of this variable (structural hypothesis). Analysing subnational panel data, the authors assess the capacity of these two hypotheses to explain unemployment trends. Their results cast doubt on the deregulation hypothesis and indicate the importance of cyclical and structural factors.
An empirical comparison of external indebtedness in East Asia and Southern Europe : reasons for Clearing Integrated Monetary Areas
(Seoul Journal of Economics, 2023) Carrera, Andrea; Cárdenas Del Rey, Luis; Mazoni, Alysson
We seek to study the evolution of the external indebtedness of Southern European Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain, which were highly indebted and used to run current account deficits until the Great Crisis of 2008, and the indebtedness of those East Asian countries that ran current account deficits before the crisis of 1997, namely Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. We pore over foreign debt and balance-of-payments data to understand any potential statistical relationship between (i) external indebtedness and (ii) current account balances plus changes in foreign exchange reserves. Our introductory econometric approach to the issue suggests that indebtedness is often and on average about twice the level attributable to current account balances and reserve changes. In Southern Europe, debt should have increased, but it increased more than expected. In East Asia, particularly since 1997, debt should have decreased, but it followed and upward trend. We attribute this phenomenon to the incomplete structure of the international payment system and, as a general solution, we call for the implementation of a regional real-time gross settlement system.
Trajectories of Labour Market Liberalisation in Spain: An Empirical Approach to the Historical Evolution of Institutional Change
(REIS: Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas, 2023) Cárdenas Del Rey, Luis
The aim of this paper is to analyse institutional change in the Spanish labour market in from a historical perspective, particularly regarding two main areas: labour regulation and collective bargaining. The main thesis is that it is possible to identify four main stages. Firstly, there was an institutional structure unfavourable to workers, which was overcome by the agency of the labour movement in the period of the so-called desarrollismo (1960-1975). Secondly, the years of transition from dictatorship to democracy (1976-1983) were a period of labour market regulation. Thirdly, there was a period of labour market dualism (1984-1996) based on the application of flexibility at the margin in the face of veto power. This was followed by deregulation (1997-2019), which was a consequence of the weakening of power resources resulting from the previous labour market segmentation.
Wages and labor relations during Francoist developmentalism: the role of the new unionism
(International labor and working class history, 2024) Cárdenas Del Rey, Luis
The relation between wage growth and the reconstruction of the labor movement in Spain, during the developmentalist Francoist regime (1957-1975), has been controversial. Applying the power resources theory in order to explain wage growth, this paper argues that the rise of the labor share was the result of the increased bargaining power of workers in spite of repressive policies of the Francoist government. The action of new trade unionism mobilized the following power resources. First, the structural power increased as a consequence of techno-economics transformations of Fordism and a generational change of the labor force. Second, the associational power increased due to new organizational forms, with more democratic modes of collective action and combining clandestine and legal actions, and the reappearance of collective bargaining with the Law of Collective Bargaining Agreements of 1958. These political opportunities opened up the possibility to the new trade unionist of developing the strategy of entryism that served as the driving force for worker mobilization. Consequently, the new trade unionists could mobilize their power resources in the three spheres, exchange, production, and politics, as a strategy by accelerating collaborative action, establishing a discursive and cultural framework, and allowing the articulation of the different trade union actions. In this way, internal solidarity was favored when a collective agreement was negotiated at the company or sector level (and not an individual contract, as it has been to date), due to the links with the social activities characteristic of the paternalistic management of labor relations and the presence of anti-Francoist organizations, the “network embeddedness” was strengthened. In turn, the successes in the consequence of wage increases and solidarity with other workers who were suffering repression increased the narrative resources that frame union actions. All this made it possible to counterbalance in part for the restrictions imposed by the dictatorship, which weakened the structural power of workers in the political sphere. The main contribution to the existing knowledge on the issue consists in explaining the apparent paradox between the wage policy of the Francoist government (oriented towards wage restriction) and the increase in labor share. This also serves to understand how labor markets and the wage-setting mechanism worked from a historical point of view. As a corollary, the previous analysis implies that the most important factor was the ability to mobilize workers successfully. The union strategy that combined democratic instruments of representation (assemblies) with clandestine and legal actions served as a catalyst for other productive and social changes. This reflects the primacy of the action of social actors for the worker mobilization theory.
Flexibilización, desregulación y dualización: las trayectorias de liberalización en el cambio institucional del mercado de trabajo
(Revista Española de Sociologia, 2022) Cárdenas Del Rey, Luis; De Arribas Cámara, Javier
Este trabajo tiene como objetivo realizar una revisión de literatura sobre las teorías de la economía política comparada (EPC) que explican el cambio institucional en el mercado laboral, agrupadas bajo el término de “trayectorias de liberalización”, respecto a la que se pueden identificar dos grandes trayectorias: la desregulación y la dualización. La metodología consiste en revisar las aportaciones de la teoría de los recursos de poder y la tradición de investigación del institucionalismo histórico. En base a una síntesis de ambas, se sostiene como la principal tesis que la segmentación laboral es el resultado de una interacción entre las estrategias de los empleadores de “divide et impera” (agencia) y el cambio gradual marcado por la reducción del poder asociativo y estructural de los trabajadores, lo que socava tanto las instituciones protectoras (estructura) como las estrategias sindicales necesarias para combatir la segmentación. Estas dinámicas son las que generan trayectorias diferentes, aunque compartan un cambio institucional de liberalización.
Challenging the working time reduction and wages trade-off: a simulation for the Spanish economy
(Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2021) Cárdenas Del Rey, Luis; Villanueva Cortés, Paloma
This paper analyzes the effect of working time reduction (WTR) on the Spanish economy. Using microdata from the Economically Active Population Survey (EAPS) and the Wage Structure Survey (WSS), we estimate the changes in employment, worked hours, wages and salaries, and the labour share driven by a 5-hour reduction of the ordinary work week in full-time contracts (from 40 hours to 35 hours), without a wage reduction. According to our results, this WTR would mean the liberation of private sector hours that are equivalent to 1.2 million full-time jobs. To calculate job creation, we consider the occupations and technical conditions of production (based on the European Working Conditions Survey). Consequently, had the WTR taken place in 2017, it would have created 560 thousand jobs, thus causing the unemployment rate to fall by 2.6 p.p. Moreover, women are found to be the group most affected by this measure. As for the effect on wages, these would have increased by 3.7%, implying a labour share increase of 2.1 p.p. Finally, we study the macroeconomic effects, through an extended version of the single-equations Bhaduri–Marglin model using quarterly data from 1995Q1 until 2017Q4. Our results show that a WTR of 5 hours leads to an increase of 1.4% in GDP.
Potential output and cyclically adjusted balance: an application of the updated Okun method to Spain (1987-2022)
(Review of Political Economy, 2024) Villanueva Cortés, Paloma; Cárdenas Del Rey, Luis; Ruiz Gómez, Juan Rafael
The estimation of potential output is at the heart of the ongoing debate on the reformulation of fiscal rules in the European Union as it is an essential variable for their application. Spain constitutes a striking case, with a small and even positive output gap along with one of the highest unemployment rates in the European Union. To resolve this contradiction, in this article we estimate the potential output of the Spanish economy for the period 1987Q2–2022Q4 by means of the Updated Okun Method. Our results indicate that both the output gap and the cyclically adjusted balance are much higher than what European institutions estimate. Consequently, Spain has much more fiscal space to implement expansionary fiscal policies.