Person: Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén
Loading...
First Name
María Belén
Last Name
Rodríguez De Fonseca
Affiliation
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Faculty / Institute
Ciencias Físicas
Department
Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica
Area
Física de la Tierra
Identifiers
14 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 14
Item El Niño as a predictor of round sardinella distribution along the northwest African coast(Progress in oceanography, 2020) López Pareges, Jorge; Auger, Pierre Amaël; Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén; Keenlyside, Noel; Gaetan, Carlo; Rubino, Angelo; Arisido, Maeregu W.; Brochier, TimothéeThe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) produces global marine environment conditions that can cause changes in abundance and distribution of distant fish populations worldwide. Understanding mechanisms acting locally on fish population dynamics is crucial to develop forecast skill useful for fisheries management. The present work addresses the role played by ENSO on the round sardinella population biomass and distribution in the central-southern portion of the Canary Current Upwelling System (CCUS). A combined physical-biogeochemical framework is used to understand the climate influence on the hydrodynamical conditions in the study area. Then, an evolutionary individual-based model is used to simulate the round sardinella spatio-temporal biomass variability. According to model experiments, anomalous oceanographic conditions forced by El Niño along the African coast cause anomalies in the latitudinal migration pattern of the species. A robust anomalous increase and decrease of the simulated round sardinella biomass is identified in winter off the Cape Blanc and the Saharan coast region, respectively, in response to El Niño variations. The resultant anomalous pattern is an alteration of the normal migration between the Saharan and the Mauritanian waters. It is primarily explained by the modulating role that El Niño exerts on the currents off Cape Blanc, modifying therefore the normal migration of round sardinella in the search of acceptable temperature conditions. This climate signature can be potentially predicted up to six months in advance based on El Niño conditions in the Pacific.Item A shift in the wind regime of the southern end of the Canary upwelling system at the turn of the 20th century(Journal of geophysical research-oceans, 2021) Gallego, D.; García Herrera, Ricardo Francisco; Losada Doval, Teresa; Mohino Harris, Elsa; Rodríguez De Fonseca, María BelénIn this study, we make use of historical wind direction observations to assemble an instrumental upwelling index (DUI) at the southern end of the Canary Current Upwelling System. The DUI covers the period between 1825 and 2014 and, unlike other upwelling indices, it does not rely neither in wind speed nor in reanalyzed data. In this sense, the DUI can be regarded as an instrumental index. Additionally, it avoids the suspected bias toward increasing wind speed of historical wind observations documented in previous research. Our results indicate that the frequency of the alongshore winds at the west coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N measured by the DUI is significantly related with the wind stress and therefore the upwelling intensity in this region. The DUI presents a significant variability both at interannual and decadal timescales. We have not found any significant trend for the 20th century. However, when the entire length of the series is considered, a large shift toward more frequent alongshore winds is evidenced as a result of several decade-long fluctuations which took place between the late 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century. This fact would imply that a significant change in the upwelling intensity at the southern end of the Canary Current Upwelling System should have occurred at the turn of the 20th century.Item Changes in interannual tropical Atlantic-Pacific basin interactions modulated by a South Atlantic cooling(Journal of climate, 2022) Losada Doval, Teresa; Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén; Mechoso, Roberto; Mohino Harris, Elsa; Castaño-Tierno, AntonioAlthough tropical interbasin interactions at interannual time scales are presently receiving much attention, their controlling factors and variations on longer time scales are under debate. Tropical convection plays a crucial role in the occurrence and nonstationarity of them. In this paper, we investigate the dependence of interannual tropical AtlanticPacific basin interactions on convection-related features of the tropical oceans’ climatology, especially the ITCZ position. Wecontrast a CGCM control simulation with an experiment in which tropical convection is modified by an artificial perturbation outside the tropics that reduces the incident shortwave radiation in a region of the South Atlantic. Based on previous work, this modification is expected to shift in latitude the climatological position of the simulated ITCZ. The experiment shows altered Walker circulations, stronger interannual variability over the tropical oceans, a westward extension of the Atlantic Ni˜no pattern and of convection, and shallower thermocline in the Pacific, making the basin more sensitive to both local and remote perturbations. As a consequence, the experiment shows enhanced interannual Atlantic–Pacificbasin interactions at the equator, and weaker teleconnections between the north tropical Atlantic and the equatorial Pacific. The latter seems to occur because the impact of the warm Atlantic SST anomalies is offset by the presence of warm SST anomalies in El Ni˜no region. Despite the uncertainties raised because the simulations are relatively short, we conclude that this work presents a potential explanation for the long-term changes in the tropical basin interactions and offers a novel and useful methodology for their analysis.Item Influence of climate variability on the potential forage production of a mown permanent grassland in the French Massif Central(Agricultural and forest meteorology, 2020) Gómara Cardalliaguet, Iñigo; Bellocchi, Gianni; Martin, Raphaël; Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén; Ruiz Ramos, MargaritaClimate Services (CS) provide support to decision makers across socio-economic sectors. In the agricultural sector, one of the most important CS applications is to provide timely and accurate yield forecasts based on climate prediction. In this study, the Pasture Simulation model (PaSim) was used to simulate, for the period 1959–2015, the forage production of a mown grassland system (Laqueuille, Massif Central of France) under different management conditions, with meteorological inputs extracted from the SAFRAN atmospheric database. The aim was to generate purely climate-dependent timeseries of optimal forage production, a variable that was maximized by brighter and warmer weather conditions at the grassland. A long-term increase was observed in simulated forage yield, with the 1995–2015 average being 29% higher than the 1959–1979 average. Such increase seems consistent with observed rising trends in temperature and CO_(2), and multi-decadal changes in incident solar radiation. At interannual timescales, sea surface temperature anomalies of the Mediterranean (MED), Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), equatorial Pacific (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index were found robustly correlated with annual forage yield values. Relying only on climatic predictors, we developed a stepwise statistical multi-regression model with leave-one-out cross-validation. Under specific management conditions (e.g., three annual cuts) and from one to five months in advance, the generated model successfully provided a p-value < 0.01 in correlation (t-test), a root mean square error percentage (%RMSE) of 14.6% and a 71.43% hit rate predicting above/below average years in terms of forage yield collection. This is the first modeling study on the possible role of large-scale oceanic–atmospheric teleconnections in driving forage production in Europe. As such, it provides a useful springboard to implement a grassland seasonal forecasting system in this continent.Item Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill(Nature communications, 2021) Exarchou, Eleftheria; Ortega, Pablo; Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén; Losada Doval, Teresa; Polo Sánchez, Irene; Prodhomme, CloéEl Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key mode of climate variability with worldwide climate impacts. Recent studies have highlighted the impact of other tropical oceans on its variability. In particular, observations have demonstrated that summer Atlantic Niños (Niñas) favor the development of Pacific Niñas (Niños) the following winter, but it is unclear how well climate models capture this teleconnection and its role in defining the seasonal predictive skill of ENSO. Here we use an ensemble of seasonal forecast systems to demonstrate that a better representation of equatorial Atlantic variability in summer and its lagged teleconnection mechanism with the Pacific relates to enhanced predictive capacity of autumn/winter ENSO. An additional sensitivity study further shows that correcting SST variability in equatorial Atlantic improves different aspects of forecast skill in the Tropical Pacific, boosting ENSO skill. This study thus emphasizes that new efforts to improve the representation of equatorial Atlantic variability, a region with long standing systematic model biases, can foster predictive skill in the region, the Tropical Pacific and beyond, through the global impacts of ENSO.Item ENSO coupling to the equatorial Atlantic: analysis with an extended improved recharge oscillator model(Frontiers in Marine Science, 2023) Crespo Miguel, Rodrigo; Polo Sánchez, Irene; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén; Cao García, Francisco JavierIntroduction: Observational and modeling studies have examined the interactions between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the equatorial Atlantic variability as incorporated into the classical charge-recharge oscillator model of ENSO. These studies included the role of the Atlantic in the predictability of ENSO but assumed stationarity in the relationships, i.e., that models’ coefficients do not change overtime. Arecentworkbytheauthors has challenged the stationarity assumption in the ENSO framework but without considering the equatorial Atlantic influence on ENSO. Methods: The present paper addresses the changing relationship between ENSO and the Atlantic El Niño using an extended version of the recharge oscillator model. The classical two-variable model of ENSO is extended by adding a linear coupling on the SST anomalies in the equatorial Atlantic. The model’s coefficients are computed for different periods. This calculation is done using two methods tofitthemodel tothe data: (1) the traditional method (ReOsc), and (2) a novel method (ReOsc+) based on fitting the Fisher’s Z transform of the auto and cross-correlation functions. Results: Weshowthat, duringthe 20th century, the characteristic dampingrate of the SST and thermocline depth anomalies in the Pacific have decreased in time by a factor of 2 and 3, respectively. Moreover, the damping time of the ENSO fluctuations has doubled from 10 to 20 months, and the oscillation period of ENSO has decreased from 60-70 months before the 1960s to 50 months afterward. These two changes have contributed to enhancing ENSO amplitude. The results also show that correlations between ENSO and the Atlantic SST strengthened after the 70s and the way in which the impact of the equatorial Atlantic is added to the internal ENSO variability. Conclusions: The remote effects of the equatorial Atlantic on ENSO must be considered in studies of ENSO dynamics and predictability during specific time-periods. Our results provide further insight into the evolution of the ENSO dynamics anditscoupling to the equatorial Atlantic, as well as an improved tool to study the coupling of climatic and ecological variables.Item The stationarity of the ENSO teleconnection in european summer rainfall(Climate dynamics, 2022) Martija-Díez, Maialen; López-Parages, Jorge; Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén; Losada Doval, TeresaEl Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on European precipitation (Pcp) has been deeply analyzed. Most of the previous studies focus on the atmospheric response in wintertime during the peak of the ENSO episode, showing boreal summer a season with a marginal ENSO signal. Furthermore, the stationarity of the ENSO teleconnection with Europe has not been considered in many works, which could mask possible nonstationary impacts in other seasons like summer. In this research we find a strong influence of eastern Pacific-like ENSO on the leading variability mode of European summer Pcp, showing a dipole-like configuration and linking El Niño with drier(wetter) conditions in northern(southern) Europe. This relationship is not limited to the total cumulative Pcp, but also to the low and extreme Pcp. This impact on European rainfall is found from the 1960s to the 1990s, a 30 years-long period when the position of the extratropical northern jet stream, which acts as a waveguide, favors the teleconnection pathway to Europe. Strikingly, the ENSO events behind this teleconnection reach their peak in summer. However, we show that the resultant Pcp in Europe also depend on the ENSO characteristic of the previous seasons, which could be used for predictability purposes.Item Ocean dynamics shapes the structure and timing of Atlantic Equatorial Modes(Journal of geophysical research-oceans, 2019) Martín Rey, Marta; Polo Sánchez, Irene; Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén; Lazar, Alban; Losada Doval, TeresaA recent study has brought to light the co‐existence of two distinct Atlantic Equatorial Modes during negative phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability: the Atlantic Niño and Horse‐Shoe (HS) mode. Nevertheless, the associated air‐sea interactions for HS mode have not been explored so far and the prevailing dynamic view of the Atlantic Niño has been questioned. Here, using a forced ocean model simulation, we find that for both modes, ocean dynamics is essential to explain the equatorial SST variations, while air‐sea fluxes control the off‐equatorial SST anomalies. Moreover, we demonstrate the key role played by ocean waves in shaping their distinct structure and timing. For the positive phase of both Atlantic Niño and HS, anomalous westerly winds trigger a set of equatorial downwelling Kelvin waves (KW) during spring‐summer. These dKWs deepen the thermocline, favouring the equatorial warming through vertical diffusion and horizontal advection. Remarkably, for the HS, an anomalous north‐equatorial wind stress curl excites an upwelling Rossby wave (RW), which propagates westward and is reflected at the western boundary becoming an equatorial upwelling KW. The uKW propagates to the east, activating the thermocline feedbacks responsible to cool the sea surface during summer months. This RW‐reflected mechanism acts as a negative feedback causing the early termination of the HS mode. Our results provide an improvement in the understanding of the TAV modes and emphasize the importance of ocean wave activity to modulate the equatorial SST variability. These findings could be very useful to improve the prediction of the Equatorial Modes.Item Potential SST drivers for Chlorophyll-a variability in the Alboran Sea: a source for seasonal predictability?(Frontiers in Marine Science, 2022) López-Parages, Jorge; Gómara Cardalliaguet, Íñigo; Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén; García Lafuente, JesúsThis study investigates the link between large-scale variability modes of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration in spring along the northern flank of the Alboran Sea. To this aim, surface satellite-derived products of SST and Chl-a, together with atmospheric satellite variables, are used. Our results indicate that both the tropical North Atlantic and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could trigger the development of anomalous distribution patterns of Chl-a in spring in northern Alboran. This anomalous feature of Chl-a is, in turn, associated with the alteration of the usual upwelling taking place in northern Alboran at that time of the year. The skill of the related SST signals, over the tropical North Atlantic and the tropical Pacific, as predictors of the aforementioned Chl-aresponse inAlboran,has also been assessed through a statistical prediction model with leave-one-out cross-validation. Our results confirm the predictive skill of ENSO to realistically estimate the coastal Chl-a concentration in spring in northern Alboran. In particular, during the El Niño/La Niña years, this Chl-a response can be robustly predicted with 4 months in advance. On the other hand, the tropical North Atlantic SSTs allow to significantly predict, up to 7 months in advance, the Chl-a concentration in spring offshore, in particular by the north of the Western andtheEastern Alboran gyres. The results presented here could contribute to develop a future seasonal forecasting tool of upwelling variability and living marine resources in northern Alboran.Item Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños(Environmental research letters, 2021) Gómara Cardalliaguet, Íñigo; Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén; Mohino Harris, Elsa; Losada Doval, Teresa; Polo Sánchez, Irene; Coll, MartaTropical Pacific upwelling-dependent ecosystems are the most productive and variable worldwide, mainly due to the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO can be forecasted seasons ahead thanks to assorted climate precursors (local-Pacific processes, pantropical interactions). However, due to observational data scarcity, little is known about the importance of these precursors for marine ecosystem prediction. Previous studies based on Earth System Model simulations forced by observed climate have shown that multiyear predictability of tropical Pacific marine primary productivity is possible. With recently released global marine ecosystem simulations forced by historical climate, full examination of tropical Pacific ecosystem predictability is now feasible. By complementing historical fishing records with marine ecosystem model data, we show herein that equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) constitute a valuable predictability source for tropical Pacific fisheries, which can be forecasted over large-scale areas up to three years in advance. A detailed physical-biological mechanism is proposed whereby equatorial Atlantic SSTs influence upwelling of nutrient-rich waters in the tropical Pacific, leading to a bottom-up propagation of the climate-related signal across the marine food web. Our results represent historical and near-future climate conditions and provide a useful springboard for implementing a marine ecosystem prediction system in the tropical Pacific.