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Bolgiani, Pedro Mariano

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Pedro Mariano
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Bolgiani
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/74080
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Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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Author: Calvo-Sancho, Carlos ×

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    On the atmospheric conditions leading to mountain lee waves in central Iberia under CMIP6 projections
    (Atmosphere, 2024) Díaz Fernández, Javier; Calvo-Sancho, Carlos; Bolgiani, Pedro Mariano; González Alemán, Juan Jesús; Farrán, José Ignacio; Sastre Marugán, Mariano; Martín, M.L.
    Mountain lee waves present significant hazards to aviation, often inducing turbulence and aircraft icing. The current study focuses on understanding the potential impact of global climate change on the precursor environments to mountain lee wave cloud episodes over central Iberia. We examine the suitability of several Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 in predicting these environments using the ERA5 reanalysis as a benchmark for performance. The dataset is divided into two periods: historical data (2001–2014) and projections for the SSP5–8.5 future climate scenario (2015–2100). The variations and trends in precursor environments between historical data and future climate scenarios are exposed, with a particular focus on the expansion of the Azores High towards the Iberian Peninsula, resulting in increased zonal winds throughout the Iberian Peninsula in the future. However, the increase in zonal wind is insufficient to modify the wind pattern, so future mountain lee wave cloud events will not vary significantly. The relative humidity trends reveal no significant changes. Moreover, the risk of icing precursor environments connected with mountain lee wave clouds is expected to decrease in the future, due to rising temperatures. Our results highlight that the EC-EARTH3 GCM reveals the closest alignment with ERA5 data, and statistically significant differences between the historical and future climate scenario periods are presented, making ECEARTH3 a robust candidate for conducting future studies on the precursor environments to mountain lee wave cloud events.
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    Major role of marine heatwave and anthropogenic climate change on a giant hail event in Spain
    (Geophysical Research Letters, 2024) Martín, M.L.; Calvo-Sancho, Carlos; Taszarek, M.; González Alemán, Juan Jesús; Montoro-Mendoza, Ana; Díaz Fernández, Javier; Bolgiani, Pedro Mariano; Sastre Marugán, Mariano; Martín, Yago
    A severe hailstorm that occurred in Spain on 30 August 2022, caused material and human damage, including one fatality due to giant hailstones up to 12 cm in diameter. By applying a pseudo‐global warming approach, here we evaluate how a simultaneous marine heatwave (and anthropogenic climate change) affected a unique environment conductive to such giant hailstones. The main results show that the supercell development was influenced by an unprecedented amount of convective available energy, with significant contributions from thermodynamic factors. Numerical simulations where the marine heatwave is not present show a notable reduction in the hail‐favorable environments, related mainly to modifications in thermodynamic environment. Our simulations also indicate that the environment in a preindustrial‐like climate would be less favorable for convective hazards and thus the hailstorm event would likely not have been as severe as the observed one, being possible to perform a novel attribution of such kind.