Person: Bolgiani, Pedro Mariano
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First Name
Pedro Mariano
Last Name
Bolgiani
Affiliation
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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Item On the atmospheric conditions leading to mountain lee waves in central Iberia under CMIP6 projections(Atmosphere, 2024) Díaz Fernández, Javier; Calvo-Sancho, Carlos; Bolgiani, Pedro Mariano; González Alemán, Juan Jesús; Farrán, José Ignacio; Sastre Marugán, Mariano; Martín, M.L.Mountain lee waves present significant hazards to aviation, often inducing turbulence and aircraft icing. The current study focuses on understanding the potential impact of global climate change on the precursor environments to mountain lee wave cloud episodes over central Iberia. We examine the suitability of several Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 in predicting these environments using the ERA5 reanalysis as a benchmark for performance. The dataset is divided into two periods: historical data (2001–2014) and projections for the SSP5–8.5 future climate scenario (2015–2100). The variations and trends in precursor environments between historical data and future climate scenarios are exposed, with a particular focus on the expansion of the Azores High towards the Iberian Peninsula, resulting in increased zonal winds throughout the Iberian Peninsula in the future. However, the increase in zonal wind is insufficient to modify the wind pattern, so future mountain lee wave cloud events will not vary significantly. The relative humidity trends reveal no significant changes. Moreover, the risk of icing precursor environments connected with mountain lee wave clouds is expected to decrease in the future, due to rising temperatures. Our results highlight that the EC-EARTH3 GCM reveals the closest alignment with ERA5 data, and statistically significant differences between the historical and future climate scenario periods are presented, making ECEARTH3 a robust candidate for conducting future studies on the precursor environments to mountain lee wave cloud events.Item On the impact of initial conditions in the forecast of Hurricane Leslie extratropical transition(Atmospheric Research, 2023) López Reyes, Mauricio; González Alemán, Juan Jesús; Sastre Marugán, Mariano; Insua Costa, Damián; Bolgiani, Pedro Mariano; Martín, M.L.Hurricane Leslie (2018) was a non-tropical system that lasted for a long time undergoing several transitions between tropical and extratropical states. Its trajectory was highly uncertain and difficult to predict. Here the extratropical transition of Leslie is simulated using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) with two different sets of initial conditions (IC): the operational analysis of the Integrate Forecast System (IFS) and the Global Forecast System (GFS). Discrepancies in Leslie position are found in the IC patterns, and in the intensity and amplitude of the dorsaltrough system in which Leslie is found. Differences are identified both in the geopotential height at 300 hPa and the geopotential thickness. Potential temperature in the dynamic tropopause shows a broader, more intense trough displaced western when using the IC-IFS. The IC-IFS simulation shows lesser trajectory errors but wind speed overestimation than the IC-GFS one. The complex situation of the extratropical transition, where Leslie interacts with a trough, increases the uncertainty associated with the intensification process. The disparities observed in the simulations are attributed to inaccuracies in generating the ICs. Both ICs generate different atmospheric configurations when propagated in time. Results suggest that during an extratropical transition in a highly baroclinic atmosphere, the IFS model’s data assimilation method produced a more precise analysis than GFS due to the greater number of observations assimilated by the IFS, the greater spatial resolution of the model and the continuous adjustment of the simulations with the field of observations.Item Major role of marine heatwave and anthropogenic climate change on a giant hail event in Spain(Geophysical Research Letters, 2024) Martín, M.L.; Calvo-Sancho, Carlos; Taszarek, M.; González Alemán, Juan Jesús; Montoro-Mendoza, Ana; Díaz Fernández, Javier; Bolgiani, Pedro Mariano; Sastre Marugán, Mariano; Martín, YagoA severe hailstorm that occurred in Spain on 30 August 2022, caused material and human damage, including one fatality due to giant hailstones up to 12 cm in diameter. By applying a pseudo‐global warming approach, here we evaluate how a simultaneous marine heatwave (and anthropogenic climate change) affected a unique environment conductive to such giant hailstones. The main results show that the supercell development was influenced by an unprecedented amount of convective available energy, with significant contributions from thermodynamic factors. Numerical simulations where the marine heatwave is not present show a notable reduction in the hail‐favorable environments, related mainly to modifications in thermodynamic environment. Our simulations also indicate that the environment in a preindustrial‐like climate would be less favorable for convective hazards and thus the hailstorm event would likely not have been as severe as the observed one, being possible to perform a novel attribution of such kind.