Calvo Fernández, Natalia

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First Name
Last Name
Calvo Fernández
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Faculty / Institute
Ciencias Físicas
Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica
Física de la Tierra
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Now showing 1 - 10 of 50
  • Publication
    Deriving wind force terms from nautical reports through content analysis. The Spanish and French cases
    (Springer, 2005-11) Calvo Fernández, Natalia; Prieto, M. R.; Gallego, D.; García Herrera, Ricardo
    Records of wind strength taken onboard Spanish and French ships during the 1750-1850 period have been digitized and examined using content analysis techniques to derive the equivalent wind strength in terms of the current Beaufort scale, this conversion being a key step in any attempt to compare ancient records with modern climatologies. During the analysis it was evident that Spanish and French officers used a great number of different terms to describe the wind force. However, when the records are analyzed and homogenized, a broadly common and essentially narrow vocabulary was identified, indicating that, at this period, a great effort had been made to regulate the maritime language. Using contemporary dictionaries and navigation manuals, an equivalence was established between the original wind force terms and the Beaufort scale.
  • Publication
    A new meteorological record for Cadiz (Spain) 1806-1852: Implications for climatic reconstructions
    (American Geophysical Union, 2007-06-23) Gallego, David; García Herrera, Ricardo; Calvo Fernández, Natalia; Ribera, Pedro
    A new documentary source of data for wind, atmospheric pressure and air temperature for the city of Cadiz (southern Spain) has been abstracted, analyzed and compared with present-day data. Wind records cover the period 1806-1852 with three observations per day. Instrumental pressure and temperature cover the period 1825-1852. While the historical pressure series shows average values very close to that found for the period 1971-2000, temperature shows a large asymmetric seasonal warming, with increments in the order of 2 degrees C for the winter months and almost no change for summer. Wind measurements have been transformed into their numerical equivalents and then compared with present-day values. The analysis shows that the numerical estimation of ancient wind forces observed at Cadiz, while providing a robust climatic signal, has a strong bias to larger values than their instrumental equivalents. Despite the uncertainties involved in the interpretation of early wind series, this effect could be related to the recording of "average wind gusts" rather than average winds as measured by today's anemometers. In consequence, wind climatologies based on historical data, which recently are becoming available to the scientific community, should be used carefully.
  • Publication
    Interaction between decadal-to-multidecadal oceanic variability and sudden stratospheric warmings
    (Wiley, 2021-07-11) Ayargüena Porras, Blanca; Manzini, Elisa; Calvo Fernández, Natalia; Matei, Daniela
    Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are the most important phenomena of the wintertime boreal stratospheric variability.During SSWs, the polar temperature increases abruptly, and easterlies prevail in the stratosphere. Their effects extend farther from the polar stratosphere, affecting near-surface circulation. According to observations, SSWs are not equally distributed in time, with decades experiencing very few events, while others experiencing SSWs almost every winter. Some sources of this SSW multidecadal variability can be traced back to sea surface temperature changes.Here, we investigate the effects of Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and Atlanticmultidecadal variability (AMV) on SSWs. We use for the first time a large ensemble of historical experiments to examine the modulation of the frequency, tropospheric precursors, and impact of SSWs by the PDV and AMV.We find a strong impact of the PDV on the occurrence of SSWs, with a higher SSW frequency for the positive phase of the PDV. This PDV influence ismediated by constructive interference of PDV anomalies with tropospheric stationary waves. The main effect of AMV is, instead, a modulation of the tropospheric response to SSWs, a finding that can be useful for predicting the tropospheric fingerprint of SSWs.
  • Publication
    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Modoki signal in the stratosphere
    (American Geophysical Union, 2012-02) Zubiaurre, I.; Calvo Fernández, Natalia
    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to be the largest source of interannual variability in the tropical troposphere. However, the variability in the tropical Pacific since 1979 seems to be associated not only with "canonical" ENSO events but also with a variation thereof known as ENSO Modoki, which is characterized by warm anomalies in the central Pacific, west from those occurring during a typical ENSO. This works analyzes the signal of ENSO Modoki in the stratosphere and compares it to canonical ENSO by using the chemistry-climate Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM3.5). The results reveal a significant warming in the Southern Hemisphere polar stratosphere during boreal winter months, which propagates downward in early spring; this is absent during canonical warm ENSO events. On the other hand, in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere, the anomalous warming typical of canonical El Niño episodes during boreal winter is not statistically significant during El Niño Modoki events. These differences are related in WACCM3.5 to changes in tropical convection and tropospheric teleconnections associated with each type of event. In particular, an enhancement and westward displacement of the anomalous convective area during El Niño Modoki episodes is related to an intensification of the Pacific South American teleconnection pattern and a weakening of the Aleutian Low. During cold ENSO Modoki events a significant anomalous cooling is present in the model simulations.
  • Publication
    Changes in polar stratospheric temperature climatology in relation to stratospheric sudden warming occurrence
    (American Geophysical Union, 2012-11-22) Barriopedro Cepero, David; Gomez Escolar, M.; Fueglistaler, S.; Calvo Fernández, Natalia
    Stratospheric Sudden Warmings (SSWs) strongly affect the polar stratosphere during winter months mainly in the Northern Hemisphere. The intraseasonal distribution and type of SSWs for the 1958-1979 and 1979-2002 periods in ERA-40 and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses reveal differences. In the pre-satellite era, most events occur in January and are vortex splits. In the post-satellite era, the distribution is bimodal (peaking in December and February), and shows more displacement events. The difference in the seasonal distribution of SSWs leads to changes in the climatological state of stratospheric temperatures, with differences up to 5.9 K at 10 hPa and 3.6 K at 20 hPa in February between pre- and post-1979 periods. We find that the temperature evolution at 20 hPa is in better qualitative agreement with theoretical expectations than at 10 hPa. Hence, 10 hPa may be affected more strongly by artifacts related with satellite data assimilation, which have, however, limited impact on identification of SSWs.
  • Publication
    Revisiting Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric temperature trends in WACCM: The role of dynamical forcing
    (American Geophysical Union, 2017-04-16) Calvo Fernández, Natalia; García, R. R.; Kinnison, D. E.
    The latest version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), which includes a new chemistry scheme and an updated parameterization of orographic gravity waves, produces temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere in excellent agreement with radiosonde observations for 1969-1998 as regards magnitude, location, timing, and persistence. The maximum trend, reached in November at 100hPa, is -4.42.8Kdecade(-1), which is a third smaller than the largest trend in the previous version of WACCM. Comparison with a simulation without the updated orographic gravity wave parameterization, together with analysis of the model's thermodynamic budget, reveals that the reduced trend is due to the effects of a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation in the new simulations, which warms the polar cap. The effects are both direct (a trend in adiabatic warming in late spring) and indirect (a smaller trend in ozone, hence a smaller reduction in shortwave heating, due to the warmer environment).
  • Publication
    Nonlinearity of the combined warm ENSO and QBO effects on the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex in MAECHAM5 simulations
    (American Geophysical Union, 2009-07-14) Calvo Fernández, Natalia; Giorgetta, Marco A.; García Herrera, Ricardo; Manzini, Elisa
    The influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar vortex response to warm El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and the impact of the warm ENSO events on the QBO signal in the NH polar stratosphere have been analyzed using the Middle Atmosphere ECHAM5 model. The experiment setup was designed to include simulations of extended NH winter seasons for either strong easterly or strong westerly phases of the tropical QBO, forced with either sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the strong ENSO event that occurred in 1997/1998 or with climatological SSTs. It has been found that the weakening and warming of the polar vortex associated with a warm ENSO are intensified at the end of the winter during both QBO phases. In addition, the westerly QBO phase delays the onset of the warm ENSO signal, while the easterly QBO phase advances it. Warm ENSO events also impact the extratropical signal of the QBO by intensifying ( weakening) the QBO effects in early ( late) winter. Therefore, it appears that during warm ENSO events the duration of QBO signal in the northern extratropics is shortened while its downward propagation accelerated. Our dynamical analysis has revealed that these results are due to changes in the background flow caused by the QBO combined with changes in the anomalous propagation and dissipation of extratropical waves generated by warm ENSO. In both cases, a nonlinear behavior in the response of the polar vortex is observed when both warm ENSO and the easterly phase of the QBO operate together. These results suggest that the Arctic polar vortex response to combined forcing factors, in our case warm ENSO and the QBO phenomena, is expected to be nonlinear also for other coexistent forcing factors able to affect the variability of the vortex in the stratosphere.
  • Publication
    Climate Change from 1850 to 2005 Simulated in CESM1(WACCM)
    (American Meteorological Society, 2013-10) Marsh, Daniel R.; Mills, Michael J.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Lamarque, Jean-François; Calvo Fernández, Natalia; Polvani, Lorenzo M.
    The NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) now includes an atmospheric component that extends in altitude to the lower thermosphere. This atmospheric model, known as the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), includes fully interactive chemistry, allowing, for example, a self-consistent representation of the development and recovery of the stratospheric ozone hole and its effect on the troposphere. This paper focuses on analysis of an ensemble of transient simulations using CESM1(WACCM), covering the period from the preindustrial era to present day, conducted as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Variability in the stratosphere, such as that associated with stratospheric sudden warmings and the development of the ozone hole, is in good agreement with observations. The signals of these phenomena propagate into the troposphere, influencing near-surface winds, precipitation rates, and the extent of sea ice. In comparison of tropospheric climate change predictions with those from a version of CESM that does not fully resolve the stratosphere, the global-mean temperature trends are indistinguishable. However, systematic differences do exist in other climate variables, particularly in the extratropics. The magnitude of the difference can be as large as the climate change response itself. This indicates that the representation of stratosphere-troposphere coupling could be a major source of uncertainty in climate change projections in CESM.
  • Publication
    Assessing and understanding the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on the earth system
    (American Meteorological Society, 2012-06) Gerber, Edwin P.; Butler, Amy; Calvo Fernández, Natalia; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Giorgetta, Marco; Manzini, Elisa; Perlwitz, Judith; Polvani, Lorenzo M.; Sassi, Fabrizio; Scaife, Adam A.; Shaw, Tiffany A.; Son, Seok-Woo; Watanabe, Shingo
    New modeling efforts will provide unprecedented opportunities to harness our knowledge of the stratosphere to improve weather and climate prediction.
  • Publication
    Do CMIP models capture long-term observed annual precipitation trends?
    (Springer, 2021-11-06) Vicente Serrano, S.M.; García Herrera, Ricardo; Peña Angulo, D.; Tomas‑Burguera, M.; Domínguez Castro, F.; Noguera, I.; Calvo Fernández, Natalia; Murphy, C.; Nieto, R.; Gimeno, L.; Gutiérrez, J.M.; Azorin Molina, C.; El Kenawy, A.
    This study provides a long-term (1891-2014) global assessment of precipitation trends using data from two station-based gridded datasets and climate model outputs evolved through the fifth and sixth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively). Our analysis employs a variety of modeling groups that incorporate low- and high-top level members, with the aim of assessing the possible effects of including a well-resolved stratosphere on the model's ability to reproduce long-term observed annual precipitation trends. Results demonstrate that only a few regions show statistically significant differences in precipitation trends between observations and models. Nevertheless, this pattern is mostly caused by the strong interannual variability of precipitation in most of the world regions. Thus, statistically significant model-observation differences on trends (1891-2014) are found at the zonal mean scale. The different model groups clearly fail to reproduce the spatial patterns of annual precipitation trends and the regions where stronger increases or decreases are recorded. This study also stresses that there are no significant differences between low- and high-top models in capturing observed precipitation trends, indicating that having a well-resolved stratosphere has a low impact on the accuracy of precipitation projections.