Person:
Pérez-Soba Aguilar, Inés

First Name

Inés

Last Name

Pérez-Soba Aguilar

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/74715

Affiliation

Universidad Complutense de Madrid

Faculty / Institute

Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales

Department

Economía Aplicada, Pública y Política

Area

Economía Aplicada

Identifiers

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 24

Project number: 244
Curso abierto y en línea (MOOC) bilingüe de pensamiento económico en la Universidad Complutense de Madrid
(2017) Trincado Aznar, Estrella; De Arribas Cámara, Javier; Gallego Abaroa, Elena; García Ruiz, José Luis; Jurado Sánchez, José; Manosalvas Cornejo, Giovanny; Márquez de la Cruz, Elena; Martínez Cañete, Ana; Méndez Ibisate, Fernando; Ortiz Villajos, José María; Palacio Vera, Alfonso; Perdices de Blas, Luis; Pérez-Soba Aguilar, Inés; Quiroga Valle, Gloria; Ramos Gorostiza, José Luis; Rodríguez Braun, Carlos; Santos Redondo, Manuel; Sanz Bas, David; Siu Galiano, José María
Este proyecto ha editado hasta 24 vídeos para un curso semipresencial reconocido como Actividad Formativa con reconocimiento de 2 ECTS para todos los grados de la UCM, "Las ideas de los economistas, cuando tienen razón y cuando se equivocan, son más poderosas de lo que generalmente se cree" (frase de John Maynard Keynes)”. Se pretendía hacer una actividad en la que los alumnos pudieran plantearse los grandes problemas del pensamiento económico y empresarial y resolverlos con humildad intelectual, como lo han hecho los grandes economistas, tanto en el ámbito internacional como español. Efectivamente, los más grandes economistas se equivocaron reiteradamente y no es posible comprender por qué si no se estudian sus teorías.
La amenaza de exclusión bursátil en una OPA ¿Un mecanismo de dilución de los derechos de propiedad?
(2005) Durá Juez , Pedro; Pérez-Soba Aguilar, Inés
El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar los efectos de un tipo de “amenaza” específica que un adquirente podría incluir en el folleto informativo que acompaña a una OPA: su intención declarada de que procedería a excluir el valor de la cotización en caso de que la OPA tuviera éxito. Concretamente, la hipótesis que se plantea es que mediante estos anuncios los adquirentes envían una señal que podría tener como consecuencia que los pequeños accionistas, a igualdad de otras condiciones, fueran más propensos a aceptar la OPA. Esta hipótesis parte de la idea de que difícilmente los accionistas podrían ser indiferentes ante este tipo de declaración ya que ésta se podría considerar como una amenaza a la liquidez futura de sus acciones. Para proporcionar un marco teórico al análisis de esta hipótesis desarrollamos un modelo que va a generar unas predicciones intuitivas (a mayor grado de amenaza mayor probabilidad individual de aceptar la oferta) pero también otras que, en principio, pueden no serlo (el precio ofrecido tiene un efecto ambiguo sobre la probabilidad de que un accionista venda). Los resultados empíricos, para el caso español, ofrecen evidencia de la existencia de una relación positiva y significativa tanto de la “amenaza” como de la prima ofrecida con la proporción de acciones que aceptan la OPA. Adicionalmente, se obtiene otro resultado interesante que pone de manifiesto cómo la prima ofrecida no es una variable relevante para explicar el comportamiento de aquellos accionistas que han llegado de manera previa a un pacto de venta con el adquirente.
From real estate to consumption: the role of credit markets in the USA
(Applied Economics, 2014) Márquez De La Cruz, Elena; Martínez Cañete, Ana Rosa; Pérez-Soba Aguilar, Inés
The aim of this article is to test whether the credit market conditions affect the strength of transmission of real estate wealth effects on household consumption in the US economy. Although many different works have dealt with the analysis of the existence of a real estate wealth effect, most of them as a reaction to the dramatic increase of housing prices in several OECD countries, there are only few papers analysing whether the consumption response depends on the positive or negative sign of the wealth shock and, as far as we know, none of them takes the effects of credit market conditions on that asymmetric response into account. This article tries to fill the existing gap in the literature on this matter. From an econometric perspective, we estimate the asymmetries in the consumption response within the momentum threshold autoregressive model (M-TAR) proposed by Enders and Siklos (2001), but following Stevans (2004), it is applied to a multivariate framework. The main results show that the credit market conditions play a significant role in the transmission of changes in real estate wealth to consumption. In addition, we find that there exists an asymmetric behaviour in the US aggregate consumption spending responses to real estate wealth and credit market shocks, which is only significant when a negative shock takes place.
Further empirical evidence on block transactions below the MBR: the spanish market
(The European Journal of Finance, 2017) Pérez-Soba Aguilar, Inés; Márquez De La Cruz, Elena; Martínez Cañete, Ana Rosa
There is a relatively unknown market for partial control or corporate influence in Spanish listed firms, where the control transaction size is below the legal threshold that triggers a mandatory tender offer, as this kind of deal looks for exercising some degree of control, but not a full control. The goal of this paper is to go further in its empirical analysis by exploring its distinguishing features, using as the criterion to define its transactions obtaining a seat in the board of directors. We find that these deals are mainly located in the segment of the market of large trades where the rules for private negotiations are easier to implement; the size of the block is relatively large and it is negotiated as a whole block. Besides, the most common buyer has no previous stake in the firm. We find no evidence that the buyers pay, in median, for a seat on the board of directors, but the variability of the premiums for those blocks is higher and shows that buyers that had no control position in the target firm pay more for being among largest shareholders (partial control) and less for not being among them (influence).
Intertemporal preference parameters for some European monetary union countries
(Applied Economics, 2007) Márquez De La Cruz, Elena; Martínez Cañete, Ana Rosa; Pérez-Soba Aguilar, Inés
In the European Monetary Union, the estimation and analysis of preference parameters in its members is of special interest because possible differences could help us to understand why a common monetary policy could have different effects on the different economies involved. In this article, we have focused our attention on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, one of the key preference parameters in intertemporal macroeconomic models. Several studies have shown a possible under-estimation of such elasticity for different countries. It is common practice to estimate the parameter using only nondurable goods and services consumption data, without referring to the flow of services generated by durable consumption. This is only admissible if the intratemporal utility can be separated among the different consumption components. Our first objective is, therefore, to test the assumption of intratemporal separability for a selection of European countries (Germany, Spain and France), and then to analyse the effect of durable consumption on the estimated values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of these countries, our ultimate goal. Knowledge of such elasticity will enable us to characterisehow saving in these economies reacts to variations in the real interest rate
Wealth shocks, credit conditions and asymmetric consumption response: empirical evidence for the UK
(Economic Modelling, 2013) Márquez De La Cruz, Elena; Martínez Cañete, Ana Rosa; Pérez-Soba Aguilar, Inés
The evolution of real estate prices and the stock market indices in several OECD countries, such as the UK, has attracted researchers' interest to the empirical analysis of consumers' response to subsequent changes in wealth. In this line, this paper investigates the existence of wealth effects in the UK economy, taking into account the credit conditions of financial markets, and whether consumption responds asymmetrically to a positive or negative financial and housing wealth shocks. We apply the Enders and Siklos (2001) M-TAR methodology modified, for application in a multivariate framework, following Stevans (2004); unlike this author, both financial and real estate wealth are included. The results show that there is a consumption wealth effect and that the consumption discrepancies resulting from an unanticipated positive change in real estate wealth are eliminated whereas those resulting from a negative change are not; however, when the changes in the UK households financial wealth are considered, we find that consumption responds only to negative unanticipated changes in such a wealth.
Non-linear cointegration between oil and stock prices: the role of interest rates
(Research in International Business and Finance, 2021) Martínez Cañete, Ana Rosa; Márquez De La Cruz, Elena; Pérez-Soba Aguilar, Inés
The Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) has been suggested as an explanation as to why oil and stock prices have become highly correlated post 2008. Our paper contributes to the literature on this topic by testing (i) whether there is a long-run relationship between oil prices and stock prices (measured by the MSCI World Index) that is non-linear depending on the interest rate levels and, if this is the case, (ii) whether the co-movement between them is stronger when interest rates are very low. To do so, we apply a cointegrating smooth transition regression approach using a global shadow rate as the transition variable to take into account the possible effects of unconventional monetary policy measures on the oil-stock price linkage. We ﬁnd evidence in favor of the two hypotheses tested. These results have important implications for portfolio managers and investors, since the beneﬁts of portfolio diversiﬁcation by investing in oil would be lower in a ZLB context. In addition, from a policymakers’ perspective, the results could be revealing that, in this context, central banks could exert a greater inﬂuence than in “normal times” not only on equity prices, but also on global oil prices.
Project number: 53
Activos, productos y mercados financieros: entre todos y para todos.
(2015) Márquez de la Cruz, Elena; Martínez Canete, Ana R.; Martínez Ruiz, Mercedes; Peguero Puente, Pilar; Pérez-Soba Aguilar, Inés
¿Es relevante la prima ofrecida en una OPA en las decisiones de venta de los accionistas?
(Universia Business Review, 2012) Dura Juez, Pedro; Pérez-Soba Aguilar, Inés
El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la influencia que tiene la prima ofrecida en una OPA sobre la decisión de los accionistas de aceptarla o rechazarla. Ni la evidencia empírica ni los desarrollos teóricos ofrecen un apoyo claro a la idea de que cuanto mayor sean las primas mayores serán las probabilidades de éxito de la operación. El modelo empírico que desarrollamos para el caso español tampoco ofrece un resultado concluyente ya que este efecto dependería, entre otras variables, de factores tales como si los accionistas de la empresa objetivo han alcanzado o no un acuerdo previo con el comprador.
Project number: 22
Finanzas sostenibles: Entre todos y para todos
(2022) Grau Carles, Pilar; Márquez de la Cruz, Elena; Martínez Cañete, Ana Rosa; Pérez Alonso, Alicia; Pérez-Soba Aguilar, Inés; Rodríguez Albarrán, Carmen Rocío; Santero Sánchez, Rosa; Turiel López, María