Person: González Rouco, Jesús Fidel
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First Name
Jesús Fidel
Last Name
González Rouco
Affiliation
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Faculty / Institute
Ciencias Físicas
Department
Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica
Area
Física de la Tierra
Identifiers
66 results
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Now showing 1 - 10 of 66
Item Dynamical and hydrological changes in climate simulations of the last millennium(Climate of the past, 2020) Roldán Gómez, Pedro José; González Rouco, Jesús Fidel; Melo Aguilar, Camilo Andrés; Smerdon, Jason E.Simulations of climate of the last millennium (LM) show that external forcing had a major contribution to the evolution of temperatures; warmer and colder periods like the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. 950–1250 CE) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1450–1850 CE) were critically influenced by changes in solar and volcanic activity. Even if this influence is mainly observed in terms of temperatures, evidence from simulations and reconstructions shows that other variables related to atmospheric dynamics and hydroclimate were also influenced by external forcing over some regions. In this work, simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP5/PMIP3) are analyzed to explore the influence of external forcings on the dynamical and hydrological changes during the LM at different spatial and temporal scales. Principal component (PC) analysis is used to obtain the modes of variability governing the global evolution of climate and to assess their correlation with the total external forcing at multidecadal to multicentennial timescales. For shorter timescales, a composite analysis is used to address the response to specific events of external forcing like volcanic eruptions. The results show coordinated long-term changes in global circulation patterns, which suggest expansions and contractions of the Hadley cells and latitudinal displacements of westerlies in response to external forcing. For hydroclimate, spatial patterns of drier and wetter conditions in areas influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Northern Annular Mode (NAM), and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and alterations in the intensity and distribution of monsoons and convergence zones are consistently found. Similarly, a clear short-term response is found in the years following volcanic eruptions. Although external forcing has a greater influence on temperatures, the results suggest that dynamical and hydrological variations over the LM exhibit a direct response to external forcing at both long and short timescales that is highly dependent on the particular simulation and model.Item A new bootstrap technique to quantify uncertainty in estimates of ground surface temperature and ground heat flux histories from geothermal data(Geoscientific model development, 2022) Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José; Beltrami, Hugo; Gruber, Stephan; García-García, Almudena; González Rouco, Jesús FidelEstimates of the past thermal state of the land surface are crucial to assess the magnitude of current anthropogenic climate change as well as to assess the ability of Earth System Models (ESMs) to forecast the evolution of the climate near the ground, which is not included in standard meteorological records. Subsurface temperature reacts to long-term changes in surface energy balance - from decadal to millennial time scales - thus constituting an important record of the dynamics of the climate system that contributes, with low-frequency information, to proxy-based paleoclimatic reconstructions. Broadly used techniques to retrieve past temperature and heat flux histories from subsurface temperature profiles based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithm were able to provide robust global estimates for the last millennium, but the approaches used to derive the corresponding 95 % confidence interval were wrong from a statistical point of view in addition to being difficult to interpret. To alleviate the lack of a meaningful framework for estimating uncertainties in past temperature and heat flux histories at regional and global scales, we combine a new bootstrapping sampling strategy with the broadly used SVD algorithm and assess its performance against the original SVD technique and another technique based on generating perturbed parameter ensembles of inversions. The new bootstrap approach is able to reproduce the prescribed surface temperature series used to derive an artificial profile. Bootstrap results are also in agreement with the global mean surface temperature history and the global mean heat flux history retrieved in previous studies. Furthermore, the new bootstrap technique provides a meaningful uncertainty range for the inversion of large sets of subsurface temperature profiles. We suggest the use of this new approach particularly for aggregating results from a number of individual profiles, and to this end, we release the programs used to derive all inversions in this study as a suite of codes labeled CIBOR v1: Codes for Inverting BORholes, version 1.Item Regional surface temperature simulations over the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation and climate projections(Climate dynamics, 2020) Garrido, J.L.; González Rouco, Jesús Fidel; Vivanco, M.G.; Navarro, J.The realism of a specifc confguration of the WRF Regional Climate Model (RCM) to represent the observed temperature evolution over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) in the 1971–2005 period has been analyzed. The E-OBS observational dataset was used for this purpose. Also, the added value of the WRF simulations with respect to the IPSL Earth System Model (ESM) used to drive the WRF RCM was evaluated. In general, WRF presents lower temperatures than in the observations (negative biases) over the IP. These biases are comparatively larger than those of the driving ESM. Once the biases are corrected, WRF provides an added value in terms of a higher spatial representation. WRF introduces more variability in some regions in comparison to gridded observation. Warming trends according to the observations are also well represented by the RCM. In the second part of this study, the projections of future climate performed with both the ESM and the RCM were evaluated for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the 21st century. Although both models simulate temperature increases, the RCM simulates a smaller warming than the ESM after the mid-21st century, except for winter. Using the WRF model, the maximum temperature increase reaches 6 ◦C and 3 ◦C for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 in the south east of the Iberian Peninsula by the end of the 21st century, respectively.Item Quantification of subsurface heat storage in a GCM simulation(Geophysical research letters, 2008) MacDougall, Andrew H.; González Rouco, Jesús Fidel; Stevens, M. Bruce; Beltrami, HugoShallow bottom boundary conditions (BBCs) in the soil components of general circulation models (GCMs) impose artificial limits on subsurface heat storage. To assess this problem we estimate the subsurface heat content from two future climate simulations and compare to that obtained from an offline soil model (FDLSM) driven by GCM skin temperatures. FDLSM is then used as an offline substitute for the subsurface of the GCM ECHO-G. With a 600-m BBC and driven by ECHO-G future temperatures, the FDLSM subsurface absorbs 6.2 (7.5) times more heat than the ECHO-G soil model (10 m deep) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 (B2) emission scenario. This suggests that shallow BBCs in GCM simulations may underestimate the heat stored in the subsurface, particularly for northern high latitudes. This effect could be relevant in assessing the energy balance and climate change in the next century.Item Multi-centennial fluctuations of radionuclide production rates are modulated by the Earth's magnetic field(Scientific reports, 2018) Pavón Carrasco, Francisco Javier; Gómez Paccard, M.; Arquero Campuzano, Saioa; González Rouco, Jesús Fidel; Osete López, María LuisaThe production of cosmogenic isotopes offers a unique way to reconstruct solar activity during the Holocene. It is influenced by both the solar and Earth magnetic fields and thus their combined effect needs to be disentangled to infer past solar irradiance. Nowadays, it is assumed that the long-term variations of cosmogenic production are modulated by the geomagnetic field and that the solar field dominates over shorter wavelengths. In this process, the effects of the non-dipolar terms of the geomagnetic field are considered negligible. Here we analyse these assumptions and demonstrate that, for a constant solar modulation potential, the geomagnetic field exerts a strong modulation of multi-centennial to millennial wavelengths (periods of 800 and 2200 yr). Moreover, we demonstrate that the non-dipole terms derived from the harmonic degree 3 and above produce maximum differences of 7% in the global average radiocarbon production rate. The results are supported by the identification, for the first time, of a robust coherence between the production rates independently estimated from geomagnetic reconstructions and that inferred from natural archives. This implies the need to review past solar forcing reconstructions, with important implications both for the assessment of solar-climate relationships as well as for the present and future generation of paleoclimate models.Item The Making of the New European Wind Atlas - Part 2: production and evaluation(Geoscientific model development, 2020) González Rouco, Jesús Fidel; Sastre Marugán, MarianoThis is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). In Part 1, we described the sensitivity experiments and accompanying evaluation done to arrive at the final mesoscale model setup used to produce the mesoscale wind atlas. In this paper, Part 2, we document how we made the final wind atlas product, covering both the production of the mesoscale climatology generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the microscale climatology generated with the Wind Atlas Analysis and Applications Program (WAsP). The paper includes a detailed description of the technical and practical aspects that went into running the mesoscale simulations and the downscaling using WAsP. We show the main results from the final wind atlas and present a comprehensive evaluation of each component of the NEWA model chain using observations from a large set of tall masts located all over Europe. The added value of the WRF and WAsP downscaling of wind climatologies is evaluated relative to the performance of the driving ERA5 reanalysis and shows that the WRF downscaling reduces the mean wind speed bias and spread relative to that of ERA5 from −1.50 ± 1.30 to 0.02 ± 0.78 m s^(−1) . The WAsP downscaling has an added positive impact relative to that of the WRF model in simple terrain. In complex terrain, where the assumptions of the linearized flow model break down, both the mean bias and spread in wind speed are worse than those from the raw mesoscale results.Item North American climate of the last millennium: Underground temperatures and model comparison(Journal of geophysical research-earth surface, 2008) Stevens, M. Bruce; González Rouco, Jesús Fidel; Beltrami, HugoGeneral circulation models (GCMs) are currently able to provide physically consistent simulations of millennial climate variability in which estimations of external forcing factors are incorporated as boundary conditions. Climate reconstruction attempts to recover as faithfully as possible past climate variability using a variety of independent and climate-sensitive sources of information. By deriving strategies of comparison between GCM simulations and proxy data, or directly recorded data such as subsurface thermal profiles, the agreement between model and observations can be assessed. Thermal profiles obtained from the boreholes of North America were grouped into eight geographically discrete ensembles and averaged to form robust, representative profiles. The gridded output from the three distinct integrations of the GCM ECHO-g were similarly averaged by region. These simulated, millennial, paleoclimatic histories were then forward modeled to arrive at the subsurface thermal profiles that would result from the temperature trends at the surface. These forward modeled profiles were then compared with the borehole average thermal anomaly profile in each region. In most of the regions studied, the externally forced runs from ECHO-g are in better agreement with underground temperature anomalies than with the control run, suggesting that boreholes are sensitive to external forcing. Not only do ECHO-g simulations demonstrate better agreement with borehole data when considering variable external forcing factors, but ECHO-g also appears to broadly describe qualitative aspects of long-term climatic trends at a regional scale.Item Summertime surface wind variability over Northeastern North America at multidecadal to centennial time scales via statistical downscaling(Journal of climate, 2020) Lucio Eceiza, Etor Emanuel; González Rouco, Jesús Fidel; García Bustamante, Elena; Navarro, Jorge; Rojas Labanda, Cristina; Beltrami, HugoThe variability of the surface zonal and meridional wind components over northeastern North America during June–October is analyzed through a statistical downscaling (SD) approach that relates the main wind and large-scale circulation modes. An observational surface wind dataset of 525 sites over 1953–2010 provides the local information. Twelve global reanalyses provide the large-scale information. The large-to-local variability of the wind field can be explained, to a large extent, in terms of four coupled modes of circulation explaining a similar amount of variance. The SD method is mostly sensitive to the number of retained modes and subregionally to the large-scale information variable, but not to the reanalysis source. The SD methodological uncertainty based on the use of multiple configurations is directly related to the variability of the wind, similar in relative terms for both components.With an adequate choice of parameters the SD estimates provide more realistic variances than the reanalysis wind, although their correlations with respect to observations are lower than the latter. Additionally, while these different SD estimations are very similar on the reanalysis used, the various reanalysis wind fields show noticeable differences, especially in their variances. The wind variability is reconstructed back to 1850, making use of century-long reanalyses and two additional SLP gridded datasets, which allows estimating the variability at decadal to multidecadal time scales. Recent negative (significant) trends in the zonal component do not stand out in the multidecadal context, but they are consistent with a global stilling process, and are partially attributable to changes in the large-scale dynamics.- Project number: 151
Item Meteolab como herramienta educativa de Meteorología en el Aula(2021) Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén; Ábalos Álvarez, Marta; Álvarez Solas, Jorge; Ayarzagüena Porras, Blanca; Benito Barca, Samuel; Calvo Fernández, Natalia; De La Cámara Illescas, Álvaro; Durán Montejano, Luis; García Herrena, Ricardo; Garrido Pérez, José Manuel; Gómara Cardalliaguet, Íñigo; Losada Doval, Teresa; Mohino Harris, Elsa; Montoya Redondo, María Luisa; Ordóñez García, Carlos; Polo Sánchez, Irene; Robinson, Alexander James; Sastre Marugán, Mariano; Serrano Mendoza, Encarnación; Yagüe Anguis, Carlos; Zurita Gotor, Pablo; García Burgos, Marina; González Alemán, Juan Jesús; González Barras, Rosa María; González Rouco, Jesús Fidel; Martín Gómez, Verónica; Maqueda Burgos, GregorioEl Presente proyecto es una continuación de proyectos anteriores dentro de la plataforma de divulgación Meteolab. Meteolab es un proyecto de divulgación de Meteorología y Clima que tiene su origen en 2002, cuando se comenzaron a diseñar experimentos de bajo coste con materiales caseros para la Semana de la Ciencia de la Comunidad de Madrid (CAM). Con los años, se generó un conocimiento que se materializó en 2010 con la concesión de un Proyecto de Innovación Educativa (PIE) financiado por la Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM), dirigido por Belén Rodríguez de Fonseca. Gracias a este primer proyecto en el que trabajaron muchos profesores y alumnos de ciencias de la atmósfera, se gestó un portal web (meteolab.fis.ucm.es) en el que los experimentos se explicaban y se grababan para impulsar su difusión. Más adelante, en un segundo proyecto de Innovación Educativa, dirigido por la profesora Maria Luisa Montoya, los contenidos fueron traducidos al inglés. En concreto, los experimentos que componen Meteolab tienen como principal objetivo entender los principios y variables que determinan el comportamiento de las masas de aire en la atmósfera y de agua en el océano. La idea consiste en visualizar con experimentos sencillos las leyes físicas que gobiernan la atmósfera y el océano: movimientos horizontales y verticales, cambios de estado, mezcla y equilibrio, así como la interacción entre componentes. Se persigue observar los procesos meteorológicos familiares, como son la formación de una nube, los tornados, la convección, la formación de borrascas o la lluvia, entendiendo los procesos físicos que los producen. Finalmente, Meteolab permite también visualizar fenómenos climáticos como el efecto invernadero, el fenómeno de El Niño, el deshielo del Ártico, la influencia de los volcanes en el clima o la subida del nivel del mar. Existe un catálogo de experimentos, la mayoría de los cuales pueden consultarse a través del portal meteolab.fis.ucm.es, encontrándose todos ellos físicamente localizados en el Laboratorio Elvira Zurita de la Facultad de Ciencias Físicas. Tras la experiencia acumulada durante los 18 años de existencia de Meteolab, en los que se han adecuado las explicaciones de los experimentos a distintos niveles de dificultad (infantil, primaria, secundaria, bachillerato y Universidad de mayores), se ha sugerido la idoneidad de adaptar los contenidos a los estudiantes del Grado en Física y del Máster en Meteorología y Geofísica de la UCM. Así, por ejemplo, cuando se explica la formación de una nube, se puede ir complicando el discurso dependiendo de los diferentes ciclos de la enseñanza. De esta manera, para un nivel de escuela primaria uno sólo tiene que explicar que el aire se enfría al ascender, y al enfriarse se forman gotas de agua que forman las nubes. Al llegar a secundaria, los estudiantes aprenden el concepto de presión atmosférica y la relación entre la temperatura, la presión y el volumen de una parcela de aire. Más adelante, en el Grado en Física, se estudia la tensión de vapor, la expansión adiabática y la existencia de núcleos de condensación. Finalmente, en el Máster en Meteorología se aprenden los distintos procesos de nucleación y tipos de nubes. Todos estos conceptos van complicando la explicación, por lo que un mismo experimento puede explicarse tanto en una escuela infantil como en una Universidad. Es por ello, que, aprovechando la plataforma de divulgación Meteolab, hemos decidido dar un paso adelante y adaptar y ampliar los contenidos de Meteolab, para así poder integrarlos en los currícula del Grado en Física y del Máster en Meteorología y Geofísica de la UCM. Con todo ello, los objetivos del presente proyecto han sido: -Implementar los experimentos de Meteolab en el Aula, tanto en las asignaturas de Grado como en las de Máster. -Adaptar los contenidos existentes del portal web Meteolab (meteolab.fis.ucm.es) a las asignaturas relacionadas con Meteorología del Grado en Física y del Máster en Meteorología y Geofísica, con el fin de visualizar procesos físicos que se explican en el aula. -Añadir a Meteolab nuevos contenidos en relación con la dinámica de la atmósfera y el cambio climático. -Evaluar la mejora de la comprensión por parte del alumnado de los procesos que tienen lugar principalmente en la atmósfera y el océano, y su relación con el clima y su variabilidad. Item A regional climate simulation over the Iberian Peninsula for the last millennium(Climate of the past, 2011) Gómez Navarro, J. J.; Montávez, J. P.; Jérez, S.; Jiménez Guerrero, P.; Lorente Plazas, R.; González Rouco, Jesús Fidel; Zorita, E.A high-resolution (30 km) regional paleoclimate simulation of the last millennium over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) is presented. The simulation was performed with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5 driven by the global model ECHO-G. Both models were driven by the same reconstructions of several external forcing factors. The high spatial resolution of the regional model allows climatologists to realistically simulate many aspects of the climate in the IP, as compared to an observational data set in the reference period 1961-1990. Although the spatial-averaged values developed by the regional model are tightly driven by the boundary conditions, it is capable to develop a different realisation of the past climate at regional scales, especially in the high-frequency domain and for precipitation. This has to be considered when comparing the results of climate simulations versus proxy reconstructions. A preliminary comparison of the simulation results with reconstructions of temperature and precipitation over the IP shows good agreement in the warming trends in the last century of the simulation, although there are large disagreements in key periods such as the precipitation anomalies in the Maunder Minimum.