Electrification and modal shift in decarbonizing transportation: impact evaluation in Piedmont region

Abstract

The adoption of environmentally friendly transportation is essential for sustainable development. Although numerous policies promote public bus transport, there has been insufficient analysis of their actual impact. This article presents a new framework that integrates demand, supply and electricity consumption using the A-S-I-F-E (Activity, Shift in modal share, change in Intensity, change in Fuel and Electricity generation). The study examines the impact of a transport policy on carbon emissions through a case study on the renovation and electrification of the bus fleet in the Piedmont Region. A pseudo-panel approach, based on household surveys from 2013 to 2022, is employed. Results indicate a significant increase in public bus transport following the application of the Synthetic Difference-in-Difference (SDiD) method. In terms of emissions, reductions in CO, NOX, CO2, PM2.5 and CH4 were observed, while emissions of NMVOCs and N2O increased. Consequently, combining demand- and supply-side should be promoted to reduce emissions effectively.