Climate and environmental dynamics: deciphering the distribution and vulnerability of world heritage sites in Europe

Abstract

Europe and its adjacent cultural regions host a substantial concentration of world heritage sites (WHS), whose spatial distribution and evolutionary trajectories are profoundly shaped by the interplay of geoenvironmental constraints and historical anthropogenic activities. Amid escalating environmental pressures under global climate change, there is an urgent need for systematic regional-scale assessments of heritage distribution patterns and associated environmental vulnerabilities. This study establishes a replicable analytical framework for climate-related heritage risk assessment, integrating environmental clustering with quantitative risk evaluation. Gaussian Mixture Modelling was employed to identify spatial clustering characteristics of WHS across five environmental typologies, while Random Forest algorithms quantified the relative contributions of climatic, topographic, ecological, and socioeconomic determinants to heritage distribution patterns. A multidimensional risk index system was formulated, incorporating hydrodynamic erosion, corrosion-biodegradation, and drought exposure, to evaluate current and projected climate risks under multiple SSP scenarios. Protection priority levels were subsequently classified through synthesised analysis of risk exposure and regional adaptive capacity. Key findings reveal marked spatial clustering of European WHS along Mediterranean coastlines and mid-high latitude zones, with continuous numerical growth in recent decades. Climatic determinants, particularly precipitation seasonality and aridity indices, emerged as dominant controls on heritage distribution. Current risk assessments identify hydrodynamic erosion and drought stress as immediate threats, with high-emission scenarios projecting substantial risk expansion – notably intensifying in southern European hinterlands and coastal zones. Significant disparities in risk exposure and adaptive capacity were observed across environmental clusters, with several heritage groups exhibiting critical vulnerability due to acute climate threats and limited resilience mechanisms. The framework developed in this study can be readily applied to other regions or heritage types, offering a practical tool for researchers and practitioners to systematically assess and prioritise climate risks for cultural heritage conservation under changing environmental conditions. The findings provide empirical foundations for developing proactive, context-specific conservation strategies that integrate climate adaptation imperatives with heritage management protocols.