Spatial Dependencies and Neighbour Interactions of Wildfire Patterns in Galician Mountain Areas (NW Spain)

Abstract

Galicia is the Spanish region most affected by wildfires, and these wildfire patterns are the object of intense research. However, within Galicia, the mountain areas have certain socioeconomic and ecological characteristics that differentiate them from the rest of the region and have thus far not received any specific research attention. This paper proposes an analysis of the spatial wildfire patterns in the core Galician mountain systems in terms of the frequency, ratio of affected area, suppression time, and extension. The contiguity relations of these variables were examined in order to establish neighbour interactions and identify local concentrations of wildfire incidences. Furthermore, a spatial econometric model is proposed for these dependent variables in terms of a set of land cover (coniferous, transitional woodland–shrub) and land use (agricultural, industrial), complemented by population density, ecological protection, and common lands. The relevance of these parameters was studied, and it was found amongst other results, that economic value (agricultural and/or industrial) mitigates wildfire risk and impact, whereas ecological protection does not. In terms of land cover, conifers reduce the frequency and affected area of wildfires, whereas transitional land has a mixed effect, mitigating suppression time and extension but increasing the wildfire frequency. Suggestions for policy improvements are given based on these results, with a particular emphasis on the need for coordination of local policies in order to take into account the neighbour dependencies of wildfire risk and impact.