Analysis of recent changes in maximum and minimum temperatures in Pakistan

Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Data from 37 weather stations with records of maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin hereafter) were used to analyse trends in both variables at a monthly, seasonal and annual resolution. Sen's slope and Mann–Kendall statistical tests were applied to calculate the sign and slopes of trends and their statistical significance. A correlation analysis was also performed to study possible relationships between temperatures and certain teleconnection patterns with an influence on Northern Hemisphere temperatures: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP). The study reveals that Tmax has significantly increased (in over 30% of sites) in the pre-monsoon season and yearly. The sharpest increases were observed in March. Tmin clearly showed positive trends in the pre-monsoon season and at the annual scale. It is also worth noting a cooling trend in the northern areas during the study period. Tmax increased faster than Tmin in the northern areas in all the seasons studied and at annual resolution, while the opposite occurred in the rest of the country (except in the pre-monsoon season). The highest correlation coefficients between patterns and Tmax and Tmin were seen in the months of the pre-monsoon season: with NAO from January to March; with ENSO in May and with NCP in the late pre-monsoon season (May). AO was the pattern with the lowest relationships with temperatures. These results could have a significant influence on agriculture and water resources in Pakistan if these trends are maintained in the future.
Referencias bibliográficas: • Abbas F. Analysis of a historical (1981-2010) temperature record of the Punjab province of Pakistan. Earth Interact. 2013, 17:1-21. (Paper No. 15). • Afzal M., Haroon M.A., Rana A.S., Imran A. Influence of North Atlantic Oscillations and Southern Oscillations on winter precipitation of Northern Pakistan. Pak. J. Meteorol. 2013, 9(18):1-8. • Ahmad W., Fatima A., Awan U.K., Anwar A. Analysis of long term meteorological trends in the middle and lower Indus basin of Pakistan-a non-parametric statistical approach. Glob. Planet. Change 2014, 122:282-291. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.09.007. • Almazroui M., Dambul R., Islam M.N., Jones P.D. Atmospheric circulation patterns in the Arab region and its relationships with Saudi Arabian surface climate: a preliminary assessment. Atmos. Res. 2015, 161-162:36-51. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.03.014. • Bapuji Rao B., Santhibhushan Chowdary P., Sandeep V.M., Rao V.U.M., Venkateswarlu B. Rising minimum temperature trends over India in recent decades""": implications for agricultural production. Glob. Planet. Change 2014, 117:1-8. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.03.001. • Bartholomew H., Jin M. ENSO effects on land skin temperature variations: a global study from satellite remote sensing and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Climate 2013, 1:53-73. 10.3390/cli1020053. • Bhutiyani M.R., Kale V., Pawar N.J. Long-term trends in maximum, minimum and mean annual air temperatures across the Northwestern Himalaya during the twentieth century. Clim. Chang. 2007, 85(1-2):159-177. 10.1007/s10584-006-9196-1. • Bocchiola D., Diolaiuti G. Recent (1980-2009) evidence of climate change in the upper Karakoram, Pakistan. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2013, 113(3-4):611-641. 10.1007/s00704-012-0803-y. • Braganza K., Karoly D.J., Arblaster J.M. Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2004, 31:L13217. 10.1029/2004GL019998. • Brunetti M., Kutiel H. The relevance of the North-Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP) in explaining temperature variability in Europe and the Mediterranean. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2011, 11:2881-2888. • Chaudhry Q.Z., Rasul G. Agro-climatic classification of Pakistan. Sci. Vis. 2004, 9(1-2, 3-4):59-66. • Chaudhry Q.Z., Mahmood A., Rasul G., Afzaal M. Climate Change Indicators of Pakistan. Technical Report No. PMD 22/2009 2009, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad. • Cheema M.A., Farooq M., Ahamd R., Munir H. Climatic trends in Faisalabab (Pakistan) over the last 60years (1945-2004). J. Agric. Soc. Sci. 2006, 2(1):42-45. • Choi G., Collins D., Ren G., Trewin B., Baldi M., Fukuda Y., Azfaal M., Pianmana T., Gomboluudev P., Huong P.T.T., Lias N., Kwon W.T., Boo K.O., Cha Y.M., Zhou Y. Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the Asia-Pacific Network region, 1955-2007. Int. J. Climatol. 2009, 29(13):1906-1925. 10.1002/joc.1979. • Dikbas F., Firat M., Koc A., Güngör M. Homogeneity test for Turkish temperature series. Balwois 2010 2010, (25-29 May). • Easterling D.R., Horton B., Jones P.D., Peterson T.C., Karl T.R., Parker D.E., Salinger M.J., Razuvayev V., Plummer N., Jamason P., Folland C.K. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe. Science 1997, 277(5324):364-367. 10.1126/science.277.5324.364. • Fowler H.J., Archer D.R. Hydro-climatological variability in the Upper Indus Basin and implications for water resources. IAHS Publ. 2005, 295:131-138. T. Wagener, C.D.O. Franks (Eds.). • Fowler H.J., Archer D.R. Conflicting signals of climatic change in the Upper Indus Basin. J. Clim. 2006, 19:4276-4293. 10.1175/JCLI3860.1. • Gardelle J., Berthier E., Arnaud Y. Slight mass gain of Karakoram glaciers in the early twenty-first century. Nat. Geosci. 2012, 5(5):322-325. 10.1038/ngeo1450. • Gauthier T.D. Detecting trends using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. Environ. Forensic 2001, 2:359-362. 10.1080/713848278. • Ghasemi A.R., Khalili D. The influence of the Arctic Oscillation on winter temperatures in Iran. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2006, 85:149-164. 10.1007/s00704-005-0186-4. • Ghasemi A.R., Khalili D. The effect of the North Sea-Caspian pattern (NCP) on winter temperatures in Iran. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2008, 92(1-2):59-74. 10.1007/s00704-007-0309-1. • Gilbert R.O. Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring 1987, Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York. • Gocic M., Trajkovic S. Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Glob. Planet. Change 2013, 100:172-183. • Gupta R., Gopal R., Jat M.L., Sidhu R.K., Minhas P.S., Malik R.K. Wheat productivity in Indo-Gangetic plains of India during 2010: terminal heat effects in mitigation strategies. PACA Newsl. 2010, 14:1-11. 10.1038/nclimate1356. • Hussain S.S., Mudasser M. Prospects for wheat production under changing climate in mountain areas of Pakistan-an econometric analysis. Paper submitted to "Agricultural Systems" 2004, Elsevier, Oxford, UK. • Hussain S.S., Mudasser M., Sheikh M.M., Manzoor N. Climate change and variability in mountain regions of Pakistan implications for water and agriculture. Pak. J. Meteorol. 2005, 2(4):75-90. • IPCC Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2013, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, (1535 pp.). T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, P.M. Midgley (Eds.). • Iqbal M.A., Eitzinger J., Formayer H., Hassan A., Heng L.K. A simulation study for accessing yield optimization and potential for water reduction for summer-sown maize under different climate change scenarios. J. Agric. Sci. 2011, 149(2):129-143. 10.1017/S0021859610001243. • Jhajharia D., Singh V.P. Trends in temperature, diurnal temperature range and sunshine duration in Northeast India. Int. J. Climatol. 2011, 31(9):1353-1367. 10.1002/joc.2164. • Jhajharia D., Shrivastava S.K., Sarkar D., Sarkar S. Temporal characteristics of pan evaporation trends under the humid conditions of northeast India. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2009, 149(5):763-770. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.10.024. • Jhajharia D., Dinpashoh Y., Kahya E., Choudhary R.R., Singh V.P. Trends in temperature over Godavari River basin in Southern Peninsular India. Int. J. Climatol. 2014, 34(5):1369-1384. 10.1002/joc.3761. • Jin M., Dickinson R.E. New observational evidence for global warming from satellite. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2002, 29(10):39-4. 10.1029/2001GL013833. • Karl T.R., Jones P.D., Knight R.W., Kukla G., Plumer N., Razuvayev V., Gallo K.P., Lindesay J., Charlson R.J., Peterson T.C. Asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 1993, 74:1007-1023. • Kendall M.G. Rank correlation measures 1975, Charles Griffin, London. • Khan T.M.A., Khan F.A., Jilani R. Sea surface temperature variability along Pakistan coast and its relation to El Niño Southern Oscillation. J. Basic. Appl. Sci. 2008, 4(2):67-72. • Khattak M.S., Babel M.S., Sharif M. Hydro-meteorological trends in the upper Indus River basin in Pakistan. Clim. Res. 2011, 46:103-119. 10.3354/cr00957. • Kousari M.R., Ahani H., Hendi-zadeh R. Temporal and spatial trend detection of maximum air temperature in Iran during 1960-2005. Glob. Planet. Change 2013, 111:97-110. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.08.011. • Kutiel H., Benaroch Y. North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP)-an upper level atmospheric teleconnection affecting the eastern Mediterranean: identification and definition. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2002, 71:17-28. 10.1007/s704-002-8205-x. • Kutiel H., Türkeş M. New evidence for the role of the North Sea Caspian pattern on the temperature and precipitation regimes in continental central Turkey. Geogr. Ann. 2005, 87A:501-513. • Kutiel H., Maheras P., Türkes M., Paz S. North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP)-an upper level atmospheric teleconnection affecting the eastern Mediterranean-implications on the regional climate. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2002, 72(3-4):173-192. 10.1007/s00704-002-0674-8. • Lakshmi K., Koteswara K., Uma R., Aruna K. The role of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the patterns of cycling rates observed over India during the monsoon season. J. Water Clim. Change 2014, 5(4):696-706. 10.2166/wcc.2014.128. • Lobell D.B., Sibley A., Ortiz-Monasterio J.I. Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India. Nat. Clim. Change 2012, 2:186-189. • López-Bustins J.A., Martin-Vide J., Sanchez-Lorenzo A. Iberia winter rainfall trends based upon changes in teleconnection and circulation patterns. Glob. Planet. Change 2008, 63(2-3):171-176. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.002. • Mann H.B. Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica 1945, 13:245-259. • Martín-Vide J., Calbó J., Sánchez-Lorenzo A. Recent trends of sunshine duration in the peninsular Spain and Balearic Islands (1971-2000). 5a Asamblea Hispano-Portuguesa de Geodesia y Geofísica: Sevilla 2006. • McSweeney C., New M., Lizcano G. UNPD Climate Change Country Profiles: Pakistan 2008, 27. • Modarres R., Rodrigues V.P. Rainfall trends in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. J. Arid Environ. 2007, 70:344-355. 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.12.024. • Panda D.K., Kumar A. The changing characteristics of monsoon rainfall in India during 1971-2005 and links with large scale circulation. Int. J. Climatol. 2014, 34(15):3881-3899. 10.1002/joc.3948. • Panda D.K., Mishra A., Kumar A., Mandal K.G., Thakur A.K., Srivastava R.C. Spatiotemporal patterns in the mean and extreme temperature indices of India, 1971-2005. Int. J. Climatol. 2014, 34(13):3585-3603. 10.1002/joc.3931. • Partal T., Kahya E. Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrol. Process. 2006, 20(9):2011-2026. 10.1002/hyp.5993. • Pingale S.M., Khare D., Jat M.K., Adamowski J. Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India. Atmos. Res. 2014, 138:73-90. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.10.024. • Polonsky A.B., Basharin D.V., Voskresenskaya E.N., Worley S.J., Yurovsky A.V. Relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation, Euro-Asian climate anomalies and pacific variability. Pac. Oceanogr. 2004, 2(1-2):52-66. 10.1029/2012JD017482. • Qamar-uz-Zaman Ch., Mahmood A., Rasul G., Azfaal M. Climate change indicators of Pakistan. Technical Report n° PHO-22/2009 2009, (44 pp.). • Qin N.X., Chen X., Fu G.B., Zhai J.Q., Xue X.W. Precipitation and temperature trends for the Southwest China: 1960-2007. Hydrol. Process. 2010, 24(25):3733-3744. 10.1002/hyp.7792. • Rasul G., Azmal M., Azfal M., Zahid M., Syed A.A.B. Climate Change in Pakistan. Pakistan Meteorological Department Report 2012. • Revadekar J.V., Hameed S., Collins D., Manton M., Sheikh M.M., Borgaonkar H.P., Kothawale D.R., Adnan M., Ahmed A.U., Ashraf J., Baidya S., Nazrul Islam M., Jayasinghearachchi D., Manzoor N., Premalal K.H.M.S., Shreshta M.L. Impact of altitude and latitude on changes in temperature extremes over South Asia during 1971-2000. Int. J. Climatol. 2013, 33(1):199-209. 10.1002/joc.3418. • Rios-Cornejo D., Penas A., Álvarez-Esteban R., del Río S. Links between teleconnection patterns and precipitation in Spain. Atmos. Res. 2015, 156:14-28. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.12.012. • Rizou D., Flocas H.A., Athanasiadis P., Bartzokas A. Relationship between the Indian summer monsoon and the large-scale circulation variability over the Mediterranean. Atmos. Res. 2015, 152:159-169. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.07.021. • Saaed S., Müller W.A., Hagamenn S., Jacob D. Circumglobal wave train and summer monsoon over northwestern India and Pakistan: the explicit role of the surface heat low. Clim. Dyn. 2011, 37:1045-1060. 10.1007/s00382-010-0888-x. • Sadiq N., Ahmed I. Analytical study of variations in diurnal maximum temperatures over Chaklala (Islamabad). Pak. J. Meteorol. 2012, 8(16):69-80. • Sadiq N., Qureshi M.S. Climatic variability and linear trend models for the five major cities of Pakistan. J. Geogr. Geol. 2010, 2(1):83-92. • Sajjad S.H., Hussain B., Khan M.A., Raza A., Zaman B., Ahmed I. On rising temperature trends of Karachi in Pakistan. Clim. Chang. 2009, 96(4):539-547. 10.1007/s10584-009-9598-y. • Sayemuzzaman M., Mekonnen A., Jha M.K. Diurnal temperature range trend over North Carolina and the associated mechanisms. Atmos. Res. 2015, 160:99-108. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.03.009. • Sheikh M.M., Manzoor N., Adnan M., Ashraf J., Khan A.M. Climate Profile and Past Climate Changes in Pakistan. GCISC-RR-OI, Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad, Pakistan 2009. • Sheikh M.M., Manzoor N., Ashraf J., Adnan M., Collins D., Hameed S., Manton M.J., Ahmed A.U., Baidya S.K., Borgaonkar H.P., Islam N., Jayasinghearachchi D., Kothawale D.R., Premalal K.H.M.S., Revadekar J.V., Shrestha M.L. Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature indices over South Asia. Int. J. Climatol. 2015, 35:1625-1637. 10.1002/joc.4081. • Shirazi S.A., Zahid F., Bokhari M.H. Impact of spatio-temporal trends and anomalies of surface air temperature over Punjab. Geograph. Pap. 2006, 1(1):22-32. • Shirvani A. Change point analysis of mean annual air temperature in Iran. Atmos. Res. 2015, 160:91-98. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.03.007. • Singh P., Kumar V., Thomas T., Arora M. Basin-wide assessment of temperature trends in northwest and central India. Hydrol. Sci. J. 2008, 53:421-433. 10.1623/hysj.53.2.421. • Smith C.A., Sardeshmukh P. The effect of ENSO on the intraseasonal variance of surface temperature in winter. Int. J. Climatol. 2000, 20:1543-1557. 10.1002/1097-0088. • Su B.D., Jiang T., Jin W.B. Recent trends in observed temperature and precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin, China. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2006, 83(1-4):139-151. 10.1007/s00704-005-0139-y. • Subash N., Sikka A.K. Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature and its relationship over India. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2014, 117(3-4):449-462. 10.1007/s00704-013-1015-9. • Syed F.S., Giorgi F., Pal J.S., Keay K. Regional climate model simulation of winter climate over Central-Southwest Asia, with emphasis on NAO and ENSO effects. Int. J. Climatol. 2010, 30:220-235. 10.1002/joc.1887. • Tabari H., Talaee P.H. Temporal variability of precipitation over Iran: 1966-2005. J. Hydrol. 2011, 396(3-4):313-320. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.11.034. • Tabari H., Somee B.S., Zadeh M.R. Testing for long-term trends in climatic variables in Iran. Atmos. Res. 2011, 100(1):132-140. • Tangborn W. Winter warming indicated by recent temperature and precipitation anomalies. Polar Geogr. 2003, 27(4):320-338. • Tatli H. Synchronization between the North Sea-Caspian pattern (NCP) and surface air temperatures in NCEP. Int. J. Climatol. 2007, 27(9):1171-1187. 10.1002/joc.1465. • Thom H. Some Methods of Climatological Analysis 1966, Secretary of the World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. • Trigo R.M., Palutikof J.P. Precipitation scenarios over Iberia: a comparison between direct GCM output and different downscaling techniques. J. Clim. 2001, 14(23):4422-4446. 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014%3C4422:PSOIAC%3E2.0.CO;2. • Türkes M., Erlat E. Winter mean temperature variability in Turkey associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys 2009, 105:211-225. 10.1007/s00703-009-0046-3. • Ullah M.K., Habib Z., Muhammad S. Spatial distribution of reference and potential evapotranspiration across the Indus Basin Irrigation Systems. IWMI working paper 24 2001, International Water Management Institute, Lahore, Pakistan. • Vicente-Serrano S.M., Lopez-Moreno J.I. The influence of atmospheric circulation at different spatial scales on winter drought variability through a semi-arid climatic gradient in Northeast Spain. Int. J. Climatol. 2006, 26(11):1427-1453. 10.1002/joc.1387. • Villafuerte M.Q., Matsumoto J. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall in southeast Asia. J. Clim. 2015, 28(5):1905-1919. 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00531.1. • Von Storch H., Navarra A. Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques 1999, Springer Verlag, Berlin. • Von Storch H., Zwiers F.C. Statistical Analysis in Climate Research 1999, 521. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, (45071 3). • Vose R.S., Easterling D.R., Gleason B. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe: an update through 2004. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2005, 32:L23822. 10.1029/2005GL024379. • Wang X., Liang P., Li C., Wu F. Analysis of regional temperature variation characteristics in the Lancang River Basin in southwestern China. Quat. Int. 2014, 333:198-206. 10.1016/j.quaint.2013.09.002. • Wang H.J., Chen Y.N., Pan Y.P., Li W.H. Spatial and temporal variability of drought in the arid region of China and its relationships to teleconnection indices. J. Hydrol. 2015, 523:283-296. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.055. • Wheeler T., von Braun J. Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 2013, 341:508-513. 10.1126/science.1239402. • Yang S., Lau K.M., Yoo S.H., Kinter J.L., Miyakoda K., Ho C.H. Upstream subtropical signals preceding the Asian summer monsoon circulation. J. Clim. 2004, 17(21):4213-4229. 10.1175/JCLI3192.1. • Yaseen M., Rientjes T., Nabi G., Rehman H., Latif M. Assessment of recent temperature trends in Mangla watershed. J. Himal. Earth Sci. 2014, 47(1):107-121. • Zhang Y., Yin-Long X., Wen-Jie D., Li-Juan C. A preliminary analysis of distribution characteristics of maximum and minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range changes over China under SRES B2 scenario. Chin. J. Geophys. 2007, 50(3):632-642. 10.1002/cjg2.1076.
Unesco subjects
Iqbal, M. A., Penas, Cano-Ortiz, Kersebaum, Herrero, & del Río. (2016). Analysis of recent changes in maximum and minimum temperatures in Pakistan. Atmospheric Research, 168, 234-249.