A new bootstrap technique to quantify uncertainty in estimates of ground surface temperature and ground heat flux histories from geothermal data

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dc.contributor.authorCuesta-Valero, Francisco José
dc.contributor.authorBeltrami, Hugo
dc.contributor.authorGruber, Stephan
dc.contributor.authorGarcía-García, Almudena
dc.contributor.authorGonzález Rouco, Jesús Fidel
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-22T12:51:13Z
dc.date.available2023-06-22T12:51:13Z
dc.date.issued2022-10-28
dc.description© Author(s)2022. This research has been supported by the Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung (Research Fellowship grant), the Canada Research Chairs Program, and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grants (NSERC DG 140576948 and 2020-04783).
dc.description.abstractEstimates of the past thermal state of the land surface are crucial to assess the magnitude of current anthropogenic climate change as well as to assess the ability of Earth System Models (ESMs) to forecast the evolution of the climate near the ground, which is not included in standard meteorological records. Subsurface temperature reacts to long-term changes in surface energy balance - from decadal to millennial time scales - thus constituting an important record of the dynamics of the climate system that contributes, with low-frequency information, to proxy-based paleoclimatic reconstructions. Broadly used techniques to retrieve past temperature and heat flux histories from subsurface temperature profiles based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithm were able to provide robust global estimates for the last millennium, but the approaches used to derive the corresponding 95 % confidence interval were wrong from a statistical point of view in addition to being difficult to interpret. To alleviate the lack of a meaningful framework for estimating uncertainties in past temperature and heat flux histories at regional and global scales, we combine a new bootstrapping sampling strategy with the broadly used SVD algorithm and assess its performance against the original SVD technique and another technique based on generating perturbed parameter ensembles of inversions. The new bootstrap approach is able to reproduce the prescribed surface temperature series used to derive an artificial profile. Bootstrap results are also in agreement with the global mean surface temperature history and the global mean heat flux history retrieved in previous studies. Furthermore, the new bootstrap technique provides a meaningful uncertainty range for the inversion of large sets of subsurface temperature profiles. We suggest the use of this new approach particularly for aggregating results from a number of individual profiles, and to this end, we release the programs used to derive all inversions in this study as a suite of codes labeled CIBOR v1: Codes for Inverting BORholes, version 1.
dc.description.departmentDepto. de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica
dc.description.facultyFac. de Ciencias Físicas
dc.description.refereedFALSE
dc.description.sponsorshipAlexander von Humboldt-Stiftung (Research Fellowship grant)
dc.description.sponsorshipCanada Research Chairs Program
dc.description.sponsorshipNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery
dc.description.statuspub
dc.eprint.idhttps://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/77565
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022
dc.identifier.issn1991-959X
dc.identifier.officialurlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022
dc.identifier.relatedurlhttps://gmd.copernicus.org/
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/73256
dc.issue.number20
dc.journal.titleGeoscientific model development
dc.language.isoeng
dc.page.final7932
dc.page.initial7913
dc.publisherCopernicus Gesellschaft MBH
dc.relation.projectIDNSERC DG 140576948
dc.relation.projectID2020-04783
dc.rightsAtribución 3.0 España
dc.rights.accessRightsopen access
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
dc.subject.cdu52
dc.subject.keywordLast glacial cycle
dc.subject.keywordBorehole depths
dc.subject.keywordEnergy-balance
dc.subject.keywordClimate
dc.subject.keywordReconstructions
dc.subject.keywordEastern
dc.subject.keywordImpact
dc.subject.keywordVariability
dc.subject.keywordInversion
dc.subject.keywordInference
dc.subject.ucmAstrofísica
dc.subject.ucmAstronomía (Física)
dc.titleA new bootstrap technique to quantify uncertainty in estimates of ground surface temperature and ground heat flux histories from geothermal data
dc.typejournal article
dc.volume.number15
dspace.entity.typePublication
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationb0dda0f2-5a69-45d6-8aec-ccc99f2dc468
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryb0dda0f2-5a69-45d6-8aec-ccc99f2dc468
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