Assessing the Projected Changes in European Air Stagnation due to Climate Change

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dc.contributor.authorMaddison, Jacob William
dc.contributor.authorÁbalos Álvarez, Marta
dc.contributor.authorBarriopedro Cepero, David
dc.contributor.authorGarcía Herrera, Ricardo Francisco
dc.contributor.authorGarrido Pérez, José Manuel
dc.contributor.authorOrdóñez García, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorSimpson, Isla R
dc.date.accessioned2023-12-04T07:46:18Z
dc.date.available2023-12-04T07:46:18Z
dc.date.issued2023-02-01
dc.description.abstractAir pollution is a major environmental threat to human health. Pollutants can reach extreme levels in the lower atmosphere when weather conditions permit. As pollutant concentrations depend on scales and processes that are not fully represented in current global circulation models (GCMs), and it is often too computationally expensive to run models with atmospheric chemistry and aerosol processes, air stagnation is often used as a proxy for pollution events with particular success in Europe. However, the variables required to identify air stagnation can have biases in GCM output, which adds uncertainty to projected trends in air stagnation. Here, the representation of air stagnation in GCMs is assessed for Europe in the historical period and in end-of-century projections based on a high-emission scenario using three methods for identifying air stagnation. The monthly frequency of stagnation during summer and autumn is projected to increase with climate change when stagnation is identified by a well-established index. However, this increase is not present when air-stagnation frequency is estimated using a statistical model based on the synoptic- to large-scale atmospheric circulation. This implies that the projected increases in air stagnation are not driven by an increase in frequency or severity of large-scale circulation events that are conducive to stagnation. Indeed, projected changes to the atmospheric circulation in GCMs, in particular a reduction in atmospheric block frequency, would suggest a reduction in future air stagnation. Additional analyses indicate that the projected increases in stagnation frequency follow the trend toward more frequent dry days, which is apparently unrelated to the large-scale drivers of air stagnation.
dc.description.departmentDepto. de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica
dc.description.facultyFac. de Ciencias Físicas
dc.description.refereedTRUE
dc.description.sponsorshipMinisterio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad
dc.description.sponsorshipMinisterio de Ciencia Innovación y Universidades
dc.description.sponsorshipMinisterio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Science Foundation
dc.description.statuspub
dc.identifier.doi10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0180.1
dc.identifier.essn1520-0442
dc.identifier.issn0894-8755
dc.identifier.officialurlhttps://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/3/JCLI-D-22-0180.1.xml
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/91051
dc.issue.number3
dc.journal.titleJournal of Climate
dc.language.isoeng
dc.page.final930
dc.page.initial917
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
dc.relation.projectIDCGL2017-83198-R
dc.relation.projectIDRTI2018-096402-B-I00
dc.rights.accessRightsembargoed access
dc.subject.cdu551.51
dc.subject.ucmFísica atmosférica
dc.subject.unesco2501.06 Dinámica Atmosférica
dc.subject.unesco2509.02 Contaminación Atmosférica
dc.titleAssessing the Projected Changes in European Air Stagnation due to Climate Change
dc.typejournal article
dc.type.hasVersionAM
dc.volume.number36
dspace.entity.typePublication
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