The stochastic SEIR model before extinction: computational approaches
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2015
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Elsevier
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Artalejo, Economou y Lopez-Herrero (2015) «The stochastic SEIR model before extinction: Computational approaches», Applied Mathematics and Computation, 265, pp. 1026-1043. doi:10.1016/J.AMC.2015.05.141.
Abstract
We study a stochastic epidemic model of Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Removed (SEIR) type and we quantify its behavior during an outbreak. More specifically, we model the epidemic by a continuous-time Markov chain and we develop efficient computational procedures for the distribution of the duration of an outbreak. We also study the evolution of the epidemic before its extinction using the ratio-of-expectations (RE) distribution for the number of individuals in the various classes of the model. The obtained results are illustrated by numerical examples including an application to an outbreak of Marburg hemorrhagic fever