Impacts of the Atlantic Equatorial Mode in a warmer climate
dc.contributor.author | Mohino Harris, Elsa | |
dc.contributor.author | Losada Doval, Teresa | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-06-18T06:48:49Z | |
dc.date.available | 2023-06-18T06:48:49Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2015-10 | |
dc.description | © The Author(s) 2015. © Springer Verlag 2015. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 603521. This work was also supported by the Spanish project CGL2012-38923-C02-01. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 2 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited. | |
dc.description.abstract | The main source of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Tropical Atlantic at interannual time scales is the Equatorial Mode or Atlantic El Niño. It has been shown to affect the adjacent continents and also remote regions, leading to a weakened Indian Monsoon and promoting La Niña-type anomalies over the Pacific. However, its effects in a warmer climate are unknown. This work analyses the impact of the Equatorial Mode at the end of the twenty first century by means of sensitivity experiments with an atmosphere general circulation model. The prescribed boundary conditions for the future climate are based on the outputs from models participating in the coupled model intercomparison project-phase V. Our results suggest that even if the characteristics of the Equatorial Mode at the end of the twenty first century remained equal to those of the twentieth century, there will be an eastward shift of the main rainfall positive anomalies in the Tropical Atlantic and a weakening of the negative rainfall anomalies over the Asian monsoon due to the change in climatological SSTs. We also show that extratropical surface temperature anomalies over land related to the mode will change in regions like Southwestern Europe, East Australia, Asia or North America due to the eastward shift of the sea level pressure systems and related surface winds. | |
dc.description.department | Depto. de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica | |
dc.description.faculty | Fac. de Ciencias Físicas | |
dc.description.refereed | TRUE | |
dc.description.sponsorship | Unión Europea. FP7 | |
dc.description.sponsorship | Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO) | |
dc.description.status | pub | |
dc.eprint.id | https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/34944 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Ambrizzi T, Hoskins BJ, Hsu HH (1995) Rossby wave propagation and teleconnection patterns in the austral winter. J Atmos Sci 52:3661–3672 Ashfaq M, Skinner CB, Diffenbaugh NS (2011) Influence of SST biases on future climate change projections. Clim Dyn 36:1303–1319 Barimalala R, Bracco A, Kucharski F (2012) The representation of the South Tropical Atlantic teleconnection to the Indian Ocean in the AR4 coupled models. Clim Dyn 38:1147–1166 Bentsen M, Bethke I, Debernard JB, Iversen T, Kirkevåg A, Seland Ø, Drange H, Roelandt C, Seierstad IA, Hoose C, Kristjánsson JE (2012) The Norwegian earth system model, NorESM1-M—part 1: description and basic evaluation. Geosci Model Dev Discuss 5:2843–2931 Bjerknes J (1969) Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial pacific. Mon Weather Rev 97:163–172 Carton JA, Huang BH (1994) Warm events in the Tropical Atlantic. J Phys Ocean 24:888–903 Carton JA, Cao X, Giese BS, Da Silva AM (1996) Decadal and interannual SST variability in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. J Phys Ocean 26:1165–1175 Cassou C, Terray L, Phillips AS (2005) Tropical Atlantic influence on European heat waves. J Clim 18:2805–2811 Chang P, Yamagata T, Schopf P, Behera SK, Carton J, Kessler WS, Meyers G, Qu T, Schott F, Shetye S, Xie SP (2006) Climate fluctuations of tropical coupled systems—the role of ocean dynamics. J Clim 19:5122–5174 Chiang JCH, Lintner BR (2005) Mechanisms of remote tropical surface warming during El Niño. J Clim 18:4130–4149 Chung CTY, Power SB, Arblaster JM, Rashid HA, Roff GL (2014) Nonlinear precipitation response to El Niño and global warming in the Indo-Pacific. Clim Dyn 42:1837–1856 Della-Marta PM, Haylock MR, Luterbacher J, Wanner H (2007) Doubled length of western European summer heatwaves since 1880. J Geophys Res Atmos 112:D15103 Ding H, Keenlyside N, Latif M (2012) Impact of the equatorial Atlantic on the El Niño souther osicllation. Clim Dyn 38:1965–1972 Dufresne JL et al (2013) Climate change projections using the IPSLCM5 earth system model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Clim Dyn 40:2123–2165. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1 Garcia-Serrano J, Losada T, Rodríguez-Fonseca B (2011) Extratropical atmospheric response to the Atlantic Niño decaying phase. J Clim 24:1613–1625 Gent PR et al (2011) The community climate system model version 4. J Clim 24:4973–4991. doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1 Giannini A, Saravanan R, Chan P (2004) The preconditioning role of Tropical Atlantic variability in the development of the ENSO teleconnection: implications for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall. Clim Dyn 22:839–855 Giannini A, Saravanan R, Chan P (2005) Dynamics of the boreal summer African monsoon in the NSIPP1 atmospheric model. Clim Dyn 25:517–535 Giorgetta MA et al (2013) Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. J Adv Model Earth Syst 5:572–597. doi:10.1002/jame.20038 Herceg Bulic I, Brankivic C, Kucharski F (2012) Winter ENSO teleconnections in a warmer climate. Clim Dyn 38:1593–1613 Hoskins BJ, Ambrizzi T (1993) Rossby wave propagation on a realistic longitudinally varying flow. J Atmos Sci 50:1661–1671 Hoskins BJ, Karoly DJ (1981) The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J Atmos Sci 38:1179–1196 IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York (http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/) Janicot S, Harzallah A, Fontaine B, Moron V (1998) West African monsoon dynamics and eastern equatorial Atlantic and Pacific SST anomalies (1970–88). J Clim 11:1874–1882 Jansen MF, Dommenget D, Keenlyside NS (2009) Tropical atmosphere-ocean interactions in a conceptual framework. J Clim 22:550–567 Keenlyside NS, Latif M (2007) Understanding equatorial Atlantic interannual variability. J Clim 20:131–142 Keenlyside NS, Ding H, Latif M (2013) Potential of equatorial Atlantic variability to enhance El Niño prediction. Geophys Res Lett 40:2278–2283. doi:10.1002/grl.50362 Kucharski F, Bracco A, Yoo JH, Molteni F (2007) Low-frequency variability of the Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship and the Tropical Atlantic: the “Weakening” of the 1980s and 1990s. J Clim 20:4255–4266 Kucharski F, Bracco A, Yoo JH, Molteni F (2008) Atlantic forced component of the Indian monsoon interannual variability. Geophys Res Lett 35:L04706. doi:10.1029/2007GL033037 Kucharski F, Bracco A, Yoo JH, Molteni F (2009) A Gill-Matsunotype mechanism explains the Tropical Atlantic influence on African and Indian monsoon rainfall. Q J R Meteorol Soc 135:569–579 Kucharski F, Kang IS, Farneti R, Feudale L (2011) Tropical Pacific response to 20th century Atlantic warming. Geophys Res Lett 38:L03702. doi:10.1029/2010GL046248 Losada T, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Janicot S, Gervois S, Chauvin F, Ruti P (2010a) A multi-model approach to the Atlantic Equatorial mode: impact on the West African monsoon. Clim Dyn 35:29–43 Losada T, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Polo I, Janicot S, Gervois S, Chauvin F, Ruti P (2010b) Tropical response to the Atlantic Equatorial mode: AGCM multimodel approach. Clim Dyn 35:45–52 Losada T, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Kucharski F (2012) Tropical influence on the summer Mediterranean climate. Atmos Sci Lett 13:36–42 Lübbecke JF, McPhaden MJ (2013) A comparative stability analysis of Atlantic and Pacific Niño modes. J Clim 26:5965–5980 Martin GM et al (2011) The HadGEM2 family of met office unified model climate configurations. Geosci Model Dev 4:723–757. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-723-2011 Martín-Rey M, Polo I, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Kucharski F (2012) Changes in the interannual variability of the Tropical Pacific related to the equatorial Atlantic. Sci Mar 76:105–116. doi:10.3989/scimar.03610.19A Mitchel TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated highresolution grids. Int J Climatol 25:693–712 Mohino E, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Losada T, Gervois S, Janicot S, Bader J, Ruti P, Chauvin F (2011) Changes in the intereannual SST-forced signals on West African rainfall. AGCM intercomparison. Clim Dyn 37:1707–1725 Molteni F (2003) Atmospheric simulations using a GCM with simplified physical parametrizations. I: model climatology and variability in multi-decadal experiments. Clim Dyn 20:175–191 Patricola CM, Cook KH (2011) Sub-Saharan Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: forcing factors and climate change processes. Clim Dyn 37:1165–1188 Polo I, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Losada T, García-Serrano J (2008) Tropical Atlantic variability modes (1979–2002). Part I: timeevolving SST modes related to West African precipitation. J Clim 21:6457–6475 Qin J, Robinson WA (1993) On the Rossby wave source and the steady linear response to tropical forcing. J Atmos Sci 50:1819–1823 Rauscher SA, Kucharski F, Enfield DB (2011) The role of regional SST warming variations in the drying of meso-America in future climate projections. J Clim 24:2003–2016 Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the nineteenth century. J Geophys Res. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670 Richter I, Xie SP (2008) On the origin of the equatorial Atlantic biases in coupled general circulation models. Clim Dyn 31:587–598 Richter I, Xie SP, Wittenberg AT, Masumoto Y (2012) Tropical Atlantic biases and their relation to surface wind stress and terrestrial precipitation. Clim Dyn 38:985–1001 Richter I, Xie SP, Behera SK, Doi T, Masumoto Y (2014) Equatorial Atlantic variability and its relation to mean state biases in CMIP5. Clim Dyn 42:171–188 Rodriguez-Fonseca B, Polo I, Garcia-Serrano J, Losada T, Mohino E, Mechoso CR, Kucharski F (2009) Are Atlantic Ninos enhancing Pacific ENSO events in recent decades? Geophys Res Lett 36:L20705. doi:10.1029/2009GL040048 Rodwell MJ, Jung T (2008) Understanding the local and global impacts of model physics changes: an aerosol example. Q J R Meteorol Soc 134:1479–1497 Rotstayn LD, Jeffrey SJ, Collier MA, Dravitzki SM, Hirst AC, Syktus JI, Wong KK (2012) Aerosol-and greenhouse gas-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations. Atmos Chem Phys 12:6377–6404. doi:10.5194/acp-12-6377-2012 Sardeshmukh PD, Hoskins BJ (1988) The generation of global rotational flow by steady idealized tropical divergence. J Atmos Sci 45:1228–1251 Schmidt GA et al (2014) Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive. J Adv Model Earth Syst 6:141–184. doi:10.1002/2013MS000265 Stockdale TN, Balmaseda M, Vidard A (2006) Tropical Atlantic SST prediction with coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs. J Clim 18:6047–6061 Sud YC, Walker GK, Lau KM (1999) Mechanisms regulating Sea-Surface temperatures and deep convection in the tropics. Geophys Res Lett 26:1019–1022 Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2011) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. BAMS 93:485–498 Vizy EK, Cook KH (2002) Development and application of a mesoscale climate model for the tropics: influence of sea surface temperature anomalies on the West African monsoon. J Geophys Res. doi:10.1029/2001JD000686 Voldoire A, Sanchez-Gomez E et al (2013) The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation. Clim Dyn 40:2091–2121. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1259-y Volodin EM, Dianskii NA, Gusev AV (2010) Simulating present day climate with the INMCM4.0 coupled model of the atmospheric and oceanic general circulations. Izv Atmos Ocean Phys 46:414–431 Wang C, Lee SK, Enfield DB (2008) Climate response to anomalously large and small Atlantic warm pools during the summer. J Clim 21:2437–2450 Wang C, Zhang L, Lee SK, Wu L, Mechoso CR (2014) A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases. Nat Clim Change 4:201–205 Watanabe S, Hajima T, Sudo K et al (2011) MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3 m experiments. Geosci Model Dev 4:845–872. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-845-2011 Wilks DS (2005) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Elsevier, San Diego Yukimoto et al (2011) Meteorological Research Institute-Earth System Model Version 1 (MRI-ESM1)—model description. Technical report of the Meteorological Research Institute, 64, 83 Zebiak SE (1993) Air-sea interaction in the equatorial Atlantic region. J Clim 6:1567–1586 Zhang C (1993) Large-scale variability of atmospheric deep convection in relation to sea surface temperatures in the tropics. J Clim 6:1898–1913 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s00382-015-2471-y | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0930-7575 | |
dc.identifier.officialurl | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2471-y | |
dc.identifier.relatedurl | http://link.springer.com/ | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/24276 | |
dc.issue.number | 7 | |
dc.journal.title | Climate dynamics | |
dc.language.iso | eng | |
dc.page.final | 2271 | |
dc.page.initial | 2255 | |
dc.publisher | Springer | |
dc.relation.projectID | PREFACE (603521) | |
dc.relation.projectID | CGL2012-38923-C02-01 | |
dc.rights | Atribución 3.0 España | |
dc.rights.accessRights | open access | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ | |
dc.subject.cdu | 550.3 | |
dc.subject.keyword | Rossby-wave propagation | |
dc.subject.keyword | Sea-surface temperature | |
dc.subject.keyword | Steady linear-response | |
dc.subject.keyword | West-african monsoon | |
dc.subject.keyword | Tropical atlantic | |
dc.subject.keyword | El-nino | |
dc.subject.keyword | Interannual variability | |
dc.subject.keyword | Deep convection | |
dc.subject.keyword | Pacific | |
dc.subject.keyword | Ocean | |
dc.subject.ucm | Geofísica | |
dc.subject.ucm | Meteorología (Física) | |
dc.subject.unesco | 2507 Geofísica | |
dc.title | Impacts of the Atlantic Equatorial Mode in a warmer climate | |
dc.type | journal article | |
dc.volume.number | 45 | |
dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
relation.isAuthorOfPublication | 84d10b42-61ac-49db-9b8e-96f321127a00 | |
relation.isAuthorOfPublication | a3494605-922c-4914-8015-fb37bf6f596a | |
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery | 84d10b42-61ac-49db-9b8e-96f321127a00 |
Download
Original bundle
1 - 1 of 1