On the impact of initial conditions in the forecast of Hurricane Leslie extratropical transition

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dc.contributor.authorLópez Reyes, Mauricio
dc.contributor.authorGonzález Alemán, Juan Jesús
dc.contributor.authorSastre Marugán, Mariano
dc.contributor.authorInsua Costa, Damián
dc.contributor.authorBolgiani, Pedro Mariano
dc.contributor.authorMartín, M.L.
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-27T10:01:48Z
dc.date.available2024-02-27T10:01:48Z
dc.date.issued2023-09-15
dc.description.abstractHurricane Leslie (2018) was a non-tropical system that lasted for a long time undergoing several transitions between tropical and extratropical states. Its trajectory was highly uncertain and difficult to predict. Here the extratropical transition of Leslie is simulated using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) with two different sets of initial conditions (IC): the operational analysis of the Integrate Forecast System (IFS) and the Global Forecast System (GFS). Discrepancies in Leslie position are found in the IC patterns, and in the intensity and amplitude of the dorsaltrough system in which Leslie is found. Differences are identified both in the geopotential height at 300 hPa and the geopotential thickness. Potential temperature in the dynamic tropopause shows a broader, more intense trough displaced western when using the IC-IFS. The IC-IFS simulation shows lesser trajectory errors but wind speed overestimation than the IC-GFS one. The complex situation of the extratropical transition, where Leslie interacts with a trough, increases the uncertainty associated with the intensification process. The disparities observed in the simulations are attributed to inaccuracies in generating the ICs. Both ICs generate different atmospheric configurations when propagated in time. Results suggest that during an extratropical transition in a highly baroclinic atmosphere, the IFS model’s data assimilation method produced a more precise analysis than GFS due to the greater number of observations assimilated by the IFS, the greater spatial resolution of the model and the continuous adjustment of the simulations with the field of observations.
dc.description.departmentDepto. de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica
dc.description.facultyFac. de Ciencias Físicas
dc.description.refereedTRUE
dc.description.sponsorshipECMWF
dc.description.sponsorshipInstituto Frontera
dc.description.statuspub
dc.identifier.citationLópez-Reyes, M., Gónzalez-Alemán, J. J., Sastre, M., Insua-Costa, D., Bolgiani, P., & Martín, M. L. (2023). On the impact of initial conditions in the forecast of Hurricane Leslie extratropical transition. Atmospheric Research, 295, 107020.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107020
dc.identifier.essn1873-2895
dc.identifier.issn0169-8095
dc.identifier.officialurlhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809523004179?via%3Dihub
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/101758
dc.journal.titleAtmospheric Research
dc.language.isoeng
dc.page.final107020-10
dc.page.initial107020-1
dc.publisherElservier
dc.relation.projectIDPID2019-105306RB-I00/AEI
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.accessRightsopen access
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
dc.subject.cdu551.5
dc.subject.keywordExtratropical transition
dc.subject.keywordHurricane Leslie
dc.subject.keywordInitial conditions
dc.subject.keywordMPAS
dc.subject.ucmMeteorología (Física)
dc.subject.unesco2509 Meteorología
dc.titleOn the impact of initial conditions in the forecast of Hurricane Leslie extratropical transition
dc.typejournal article
dc.type.hasVersionVoR
dc.volume.number295
dspace.entity.typePublication
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