Trade shoks and aggregate fluctuations in an oil-exporting economy
| dc.contributor.author | Sáez, Francisco J. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Puch González, Luis Antonio | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-06-21T01:46:15Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2023-06-21T01:46:15Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2003 | |
| dc.description.abstract | In this paper we analyze the role of trade shocks in shaping aggregate fluctuations in Venezuela from 1950 to 1995. To this end a stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy whose main productive activity rests in the exports of a single basic product is specied. Shocks to the terms of trade which are directly associated to oil price changes are modelled as a foreign transfer. We find that this approach gives predictions that are consistent with the time series properties of Venezuela when i) the income effect of consumption more than compensates the substitution effect that generates the oil transfer and, ii) there is imperfect capital mobility. In particular, our model specification captures the observed patterns of the main aggregates after the oil resource boom of 1974. | |
| dc.description.faculty | Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales | |
| dc.description.faculty | Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE) | |
| dc.description.refereed | FALSE | |
| dc.description.status | unpub | |
| dc.eprint.id | https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/7694 | |
| dc.identifier.relatedurl | https://www.ucm.es/icae | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/64520 | |
| dc.issue.number | 01 | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | |
| dc.page.total | 27 | |
| dc.publication.place | Madrid | |
| dc.publisher | Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico. Universidad Complutense de Madrid. | |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | Documentos de Trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE) | |
| dc.rights.accessRights | open access | |
| dc.subject.jel | E32 | |
| dc.subject.jel | E37 | |
| dc.subject.keyword | Trade shocks. Aggregate fuctuations. Emerging economies | |
| dc.subject.ucm | Macroeconomía | |
| dc.subject.unesco | 5307.14 Teoría Macroeconómica | |
| dc.title | Trade shoks and aggregate fluctuations in an oil-exporting economy | |
| dc.type | technical report | |
| dc.volume.number | 2003 | |
| dcterms.references | Backus, D. and M. Crucini (1998), \Oil prices and the terms of trade," NBER Working Paper 6697. Baptista, A. (1997), \Bases cuantitativas de la economía Venezolana," Fundación Polar. Baxter, M. and M. Koutparitsas (2000), \What can account for °uctuations in the terms of trade?" Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Bruno, C. and F. Portier (1995), \A small Open Economy RBC Model: the French Economy Case," in Pierre-Yves Henin (1995), Ch. V, \Advances in Business Cycle Research," Springer. Calvo, G. and C. Végh (1999), "Inflation Stabilization and BOP crises in Developing Countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol. 1, J.B. Taylor and M. Woodford eds. Ch. 24. Cardia, E. (1991),"The dynamics of a small open economy in response to monetary, fiscal, and productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics 28, 411-434. Carmichael, B. and K. Sikoro (1999),"Liquidity Constraints and Business Cycles in Developing Economies," Review of Economics Dynamics 2, 370-402. Correia, I., J. Neves and S. Rebelo (1995),"Business cycle in a small open economy" European Economic Review 39, 1089-1113. Greenwood, J., Z. Hercowitz and G. Huffman (1988), "Investment, capacity utilization and the real business cycle," American Economic Review 78, 971-987. Hansen, G. D. (1985), "Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics 16, 309-327. King, R. and S. Rebelo (1999), "Resuscitating Real Business Cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Michael Woodford y John Taylor eds. Kydland, F and E.C. Prescott (1982), "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica 50 (6), 1345-1370. Kollintzas, T. and V. Vassilatos (2000), "A small open economy model with transaction cost in foreign capital," European Economic Review 44, 1515-1541. Kose, M. A. and R. Riezman (2001), "Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa," Journal of Development Economics 65, 55-80. Kouparitsas, M. (1997), "North-South Terms of Trade: An empirical investigation," Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. McCallum, B. (1989) "Real BusinessCycle Models," Ch. I in Modern Business Cycle Theory, Robert Barro ed., Harvard University Press. Cambridge Massachusetts. Mendoza, E. (1991) "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," The American Economic Review 81 (4). Mendoza, E. (1995) "The Terms of Trade, The real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review 36 (1), 101-137. Ostry, J. D. and C. M. Reinhart (1995), "Private Saving and terms of trade shocks," IMF Staff Papers 39, 495-517. Prescott, E.C (1986), "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 10 (4), 9-22. Rodríguez, F. and J. D. Sachs (2001), "Why do resource abundant economies grow more slowly. A new explanation and a application to Venezuela," Journal of Economic Growth 4, 277-303. Rogerson, R. (1988), "Indivisible Labor, Lotteries and Equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics 21, 3-16. Sáez, F. (2001), "Patrones cíclicos de la economía venezolana," Ph.D. Thesis, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, mimeo. Stokey, N.L. and S. Rebelo (1995), "Growth effects of flat-rate taxes," Journal of Political Economy 103, 519-550. Zimmermann, C. (1995), "International Trade over de Business Cycle," mimeo. | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication | 269b8cd4-4a3b-4c1f-981d-2590f9cc8f20 | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery | 269b8cd4-4a3b-4c1f-981d-2590f9cc8f20 |
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