The role of climate change and ozone recovery for the future timing of major stratospheric warmings

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dc.contributor.authorAyarzagüena Porras, Blanca
dc.contributor.authorLangematz, Ulrike
dc.contributor.authorMeul, Stefanie
dc.contributor.authorOberländer, Sophie
dc.contributor.authorAbalichin, Janna
dc.contributor.authorKubin, Anne
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-09T09:29:08Z
dc.date.available2024-01-09T09:29:08Z
dc.date.issued2013-04-16
dc.description.abstractFuture changes in the occurrence rates of major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) have recently been identified in chemistry‐climate model (CCM) simulations, but without reaching a consensus, potentially due to the competition of different forcings. We examine future variations in the occurrence rates of MSWs in transient and timeslice simulations of the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) CCM, with a focus on the individual effect of different external factors. Although no statistically significant variation is found in the decadal‐mean frequency of MSWs, a shift of their timing toward midwinter is detected in the future. The strengthening of the polar vortex in early winter is explained by recovering ozone levels following the future decrease in ozone‐depleting substances. In midwinter, a stronger dynamical forcing associated with changes in tropical sea surface temperatures will lead to more MSWs, through a similar mechanism that explains the stratospheric response to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
dc.description.departmentDepto. de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica
dc.description.facultyFac. de Ciencias Físicas
dc.description.refereedTRUE
dc.description.sponsorshipDeutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
dc.description.statuspub
dc.identifier.citationAyarzagüena, B., U. Langematz, S. Meul, S. Oberländer, J. Abalichin, and A. Kubin (2013), The role of climate change and ozone recovery for the future timing of major stratospheric warmings, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2460–2465, doi:10.1002/grl.50477
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/grl.50477
dc.identifier.issn0094-8276
dc.identifier.issn1944-8007
dc.identifier.officialurlhttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50477
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/91943
dc.issue.number10
dc.journal.titleGeophysical Research Letters
dc.language.isoeng
dc.page.final2465
dc.page.initial2460
dc.publisherAmerican Geophysical Union
dc.relation.projectIDLA 1025/13-1
dc.relation.projectIDLA 1025/14-1
dc.relation.projectIDLA 1025/15-1
dc.relation.projectIDLE 1865/1-2
dc.relation.projectIDLA 1025/5-3
dc.rights.accessRightsopen access
dc.subject.cdu551.51
dc.subject.keywordMajor stratospheric warmings
dc.subject.keywordClimate change
dc.subject.keywordStratospheric polar vortex
dc.subject.keywordOzone recovery
dc.subject.ucmFísica atmosférica
dc.subject.unesco2501.06 Dinámica Atmosférica
dc.titleThe role of climate change and ozone recovery for the future timing of major stratospheric warmings
dc.typejournal article
dc.type.hasVersionVoR
dc.volume.number40
dspace.entity.typePublication
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationafac4741-04ec-4805-9476-53451704e8de
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryafac4741-04ec-4805-9476-53451704e8de
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