The SIS and SIR stochastic epidemic models: A maximum entropy approach

Abstract

We analyze the dynamics of infectious disease spread by formulating the maximum entropy (ME) solutions of the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) and the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) stochastic models. Several scenarios providing helpful insight into the use of the ME formalism for epidemic modeling are identified. The ME results are illustrated with respect to several descriptors, including the number of recovered individuals and the time to extinction. An application to infectious data from outbreaks of extended spectrum beta lactamase (ESBL) in a hospital is also considered.