Impact of climate change on wind and photovoltaic energy resources in the Canary Islands and adjacent regions

Abstract

The progressive energy transition to systems with higher shares of renewable energy is particularly important in islands regions, which are largely dependent on energy imports. In this context, to assess the impact of climate change on renewable energy resources during the 21st century is crucial for polycimakers and stakeholders. In this work, we provide an overview of wind and photovoltaic (PV) resources, its variability and complementarity between them, as well as their future changes, in the Canary Islands and surrounding areas. Variability is assessed through the analysis of energy droughts (low-productivity periods). In addition, a sensitivity test is performed to find the optimal combination of PV (photovoltaic) and wind that reduce energy droughts and the persistence of that conditions at a local scale. A set of climate simulations from the MENA-CORDEX runs are used, in present and future climate (2046-2065, 2081-2100) for two different scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5). Results show different changes in wind productivity depending on the scenario: a decrease in RCP2.6 and an increase in the RCP8.5. PV experienced a subtle decrease, with some exceptions. Changes in variability are small and the complementarity test shows that high shares of PV energy (above 50%) reduce both, energy droughts and the persistence of drought conditions.