Quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever introduction into Spain by legal import of swine products

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dc.contributor.authorMuñoz Pérez, Carolina
dc.contributor.authorMartínez López, Beatriz
dc.contributor.authorGómez Vázquez, José Pablo
dc.contributor.authorAguilar Vega, Cecilia
dc.contributor.authorBosch López, Jaime Alfonso
dc.contributor.authorIto, Satoshi
dc.contributor.authorMartínez Avilés, Marta
dc.contributor.authorSánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José Manuel
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-22T15:05:16Z
dc.date.available2024-05-22T15:05:16Z
dc.date.issued2023-08-23
dc.description2023 Acuerdos transformativos CRUE
dc.description.abstractAfrican swine fever (ASF) is currently threatening the global swine industry. Its unstoppable global spread poses a serious risk to Spain, one of the world's leading producers. Over the past years, there has been an increased global burden of ASF not only in swine but also swine products. Unfortunately, many pigs are not diagnosed before slaughter and their products are used for human consumption. These ASF-contaminated products are only a source for new ASF outbreaks when they are consumed by domestic pigs or wild boar, which may happen either by swill feeding or landfill access. This study presents a quantitative stochastic risk assessment model for the introduction of ASF into Spain via the legal import of swine products, specifically pork and pork products. Entry assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment and risk estimation were carried out. The results suggest an annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain of 1.74 × 10−4, the highest risk being represented by Hungary, Portugal, and Poland. Monthly risk distribution is homogeneously distributed throughout the year. Illegal trade and pork product movement for own consumption (e.g., air and ship passenger luggage) have not been taken into account due to the lack of available, accredited data sources. This limitation may have influenced the model's outcomes and, the risk of introduction might be higher than that estimated. Nevertheless, the results presented herein would contribute to allocating resources to areas at higher risk, improving prevention and control strategies and, ultimately, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain.
dc.description.departmentDepto. de Sanidad Animal
dc.description.facultyCentro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET)
dc.description.fundingtypeAPC financiada por la UCM
dc.description.refereedTRUE
dc.description.statuspub
dc.identifier.citationCarolina Muñoz-Pérez, Beatriz Martínez-López, José Pablo Gómez-Vázquez, Cecilia Aguilar-Vega, Jaime Bosch, Satoshi Ito, Marta Martínez-Avilés, José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever introduction into Spain by legal import of swine products, Research in Veterinary Science, Volume 163, 2023, 104990, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rvsc.2023.104990.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.rvsc.2023.104990
dc.identifier.essn1532-2661
dc.identifier.issn0034-5288
dc.identifier.officialurlhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.rvsc.2023.104990
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/104328
dc.issue.number104990
dc.journal.titleResearch in Veterinary Science
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.accessRightsopen access
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
dc.subject.cdu636.09
dc.subject.keywordAfrican swine fever
dc.subject.keywordIntroduction
dc.subject.keywordSwine product
dc.subject.keywordImport risk assessment
dc.subject.keywordSpain
dc.subject.ucmVeterinaria
dc.subject.unesco3109 Ciencias Veterinarias
dc.titleQuantitative risk assessment of African swine fever introduction into Spain by legal import of swine products
dc.typejournal article
dc.type.hasVersionVoR
dc.volume.number163
dspace.entity.typePublication
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