Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños

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dc.contributor.authorGómara Cardalliaguet, Íñigo
dc.contributor.authorRodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén
dc.contributor.authorMohino Harris, Elsa
dc.contributor.authorLosada Doval, Teresa
dc.contributor.authorPolo Sánchez, Irene
dc.contributor.authorColl, Marta
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-17T09:06:36Z
dc.date.available2023-06-17T09:06:36Z
dc.date.issued2021-05
dc.description© 2021 The Author(s). This research was funded by the EU H2020 project TRIATLAS (No. 817578), the Universidad Complutense de Madrid project FEI-EU-19-09 and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness project PRE4CAST (CGL2017-86415-R). This work also acknowledges the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (CEX2019-000928- S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC). We thank Derek Tittensor (UNEP-WCMC) and Iliusi Vega (PIK-Postdam) for help with FishMIP data extraction. We thank Roberto Suárez-Moreno (LDEO-Columbia University), Jeroen Steenbeek (ICM-CSIC) and Charles Stock (NOAA-GFDL) for their cooperation and help during the progress of this study. Finally, we would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions, which contributed to improve this manuscript.
dc.description.abstractTropical Pacific upwelling-dependent ecosystems are the most productive and variable worldwide, mainly due to the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO can be forecasted seasons ahead thanks to assorted climate precursors (local-Pacific processes, pantropical interactions). However, due to observational data scarcity, little is known about the importance of these precursors for marine ecosystem prediction. Previous studies based on Earth System Model simulations forced by observed climate have shown that multiyear predictability of tropical Pacific marine primary productivity is possible. With recently released global marine ecosystem simulations forced by historical climate, full examination of tropical Pacific ecosystem predictability is now feasible. By complementing historical fishing records with marine ecosystem model data, we show herein that equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) constitute a valuable predictability source for tropical Pacific fisheries, which can be forecasted over large-scale areas up to three years in advance. A detailed physical-biological mechanism is proposed whereby equatorial Atlantic SSTs influence upwelling of nutrient-rich waters in the tropical Pacific, leading to a bottom-up propagation of the climate-related signal across the marine food web. Our results represent historical and near-future climate conditions and provide a useful springboard for implementing a marine ecosystem prediction system in the tropical Pacific.
dc.description.departmentDepto. de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica
dc.description.facultyFac. de Ciencias Físicas
dc.description.refereedTRUE
dc.description.sponsorshipUnión Europea. Horizonte 2020
dc.description.sponsorshipMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO)
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.description.sponsorshipCentro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa
dc.description.sponsorshipInstitute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC)
dc.description.statuspub
dc.eprint.idhttps://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/65861
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/1748-9326/abfa4d
dc.identifier.issn1748-9326
dc.identifier.officialurlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfa4d
dc.identifier.relatedurlhttps://iopscience.iop.org/
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/8190
dc.issue.number5
dc.journal.titleEnvironmental research letters
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherIOP Publishing Ltd
dc.relation.projectIDTRIATLAS (817578)
dc.relation.projectIDPRE4CAST (CGL2017-86415-R).
dc.relation.projectIDFEI-EU-19-09
dc.relation.projectIDCEX2019-000928- S
dc.rightsAtribución 3.0 España
dc.rights.accessRightsopen access
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
dc.subject.cdu52
dc.subject.keywordSea-surface temperature
dc.subject.keywordEquatorial Pacific
dc.subject.keywordEl-Nino
dc.subject.keywordOcean
dc.subject.keywordEnso
dc.subject.keywordVariability
dc.subject.keywordModel
dc.subject.keywordEcosystem
dc.subject.keywordSimulations
dc.subject.keywordNorth
dc.subject.ucmFísica atmosférica
dc.subject.unesco2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
dc.titleSkillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños
dc.typejournal article
dc.volume.number16
dspace.entity.typePublication
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relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoverydf61414b-499d-4304-bb30-6b91e270b321
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