FINGER (Forming and Identifying New Groups of Expected Risks): developing and validating a new predictive model to identify patients with high healthcare cost and at risk of admission

Abstract

Predictive statistical models used in population stratification programmes are complex and usually difficult to interpret for primary care professionals. We designed FINGER (Forming and Identifying New Groups of Expected Risks), a new model based on clinical criteria, easy to understand and implement by physicians. Our aim was to assess the ability of FINGER to predict costs and correctly identify patients with high resource use in the following year.