On the influence of ENSO on sudden stratospheric warmings

Abstract

Using the extended ERA5 reanalysis and three state-of-the-art models, this study explores how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence the total frequency, seasonal cycle and preconditioning of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Reanalysis data shows that in the last seven decades, winters with SSWs were more common than winters without, regardless El Niño (EN) or La Niña (LN) occurrence or the ENSO/SSW definitions. In agreement with previous studies, our models tend to simulate a linear ENSO-SSW relationship, with more SSWs for EN, around mid-winter (January–February) as in reanalysis, and less for LN when compared to neutral conditions. Independently of ENSO, the main tropospheric precursor of SSWs appears to be an anomalous wave-like pattern over Eurasia, but it is dominated by wavenumber 1 (WN1) for EN and shows an enhanced wavenumber 2 (WN2) for LN. The differences in this Eurasian wave pattern, which is largely internally generated, emerge from the distinct configuration of the background, stationary wave pattern induced by ENSO in the North Pacific, favoring a stronger WN1 (WN2) component during EN (LN). Our results suggest that the ENSO-forced signal relies on modulating the seasonal-mean polar vortex strength, becoming weaker and more displaced (stronger and more stable) for EN (LN), while ENSO-unforced wave activity represents the ultimate trigger of SSWs. This supports the view that ENSO and SSWs are distinct sources of variability of the winter atmospheric circulation operating at different time-scales and may reconcile previous findings in this context.