No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI

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dc.contributor.authorAyarzagüena Porras, Blanca
dc.contributor.authorPolvani, Lorenzo M.
dc.contributor.authorLangematz, Ulrike
dc.contributor.authorAkiyoshi, Hideharu
dc.contributor.authorBekki, Slimane
dc.contributor.authorButchart, Neal
dc.contributor.authorDameris, Martin
dc.contributor.authorDeushi, Makoto
dc.contributor.authorHardiman, Steven C.
dc.contributor.authorJöckel, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorKlekociuk, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorMarchand, Marion
dc.contributor.authorMichou, Martine
dc.contributor.authorMorgenstern, Olaf
dc.contributor.authorO'Connor, Fiona M.
dc.contributor.authorOman, Luke D.
dc.contributor.authorPlummer, David A.
dc.contributor.authorRevell, Laura
dc.contributor.authorRozanov, Eugene
dc.contributor.authorSaint-Martin, David
dc.contributor.authorScinocca, John
dc.contributor.authorStenke, Andrea
dc.contributor.authorStone, Kane
dc.contributor.authorYamashita, Yousuke
dc.contributor.authorYoshida, Kohei
dc.contributor.authorZeng, Guang
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-17T12:21:51Z
dc.date.available2024-01-17T12:21:51Z
dc.date.issued2018-08-13
dc.description.abstractMajor mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSW changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSW characteristics – such as their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric forcing – are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century.
dc.description.departmentDepto. de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica
dc.description.facultyFac. de Ciencias Físicas
dc.description.refereedTRUE
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Research council
dc.description.sponsorshipDeutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
dc.description.statuspub
dc.identifier.citationAyarzagüena, B., Polvani, L. M., Langematz, U., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Butchart, N., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Hardiman, S. C., Jöckel, P., Klekociuk, A., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., O'Connor, F. M., Oman, L. D., Plummer, D. A., Revell, L., Rozanov, E., Saint-Martin, D., Scinocca, J., Stenke, A., Stone, K., Yamashita, Y., Yoshida, K., and Zeng, G.: No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, 2018.
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018
dc.identifier.essn1680-7324
dc.identifier.issn1680-7316
dc.identifier.officialurlhttps://acp.copernicus.org/articles/18/11277/2018/
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/93601
dc.journal.titleAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics
dc.language.isoeng
dc.page.final11287
dc.page.initial11277
dc.publisherEuropean Geosciences Union
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EuropeanResearchCouncil/FP7-ENV.2013.6.1-2/603557/STRATOCLIM
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/DFG/LA 1025/15-1/SHARP
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.accessRightsopen access
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject.keywordClimate change
dc.subject.keywordSudden stratospheric warmings
dc.subject.ucmFísica atmosférica
dc.subject.unesco2502.06 Climatología Física
dc.subject.unesco2501.06 Dinámica Atmosférica
dc.titleNo robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI
dc.typejournal article
dc.type.hasVersionVoR
dc.volume.number18
dspace.entity.typePublication
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationafac4741-04ec-4805-9476-53451704e8de
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryafac4741-04ec-4805-9476-53451704e8de
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