Modeling and simulation of Classical Swine Fever Virus spread between and within farms

Abstract

Classical swine fever is a viral disease of pigs that causes severe commercial restrictions to the affected areas. The knowledge of its spread patterns and risk factors would help to implement specific measures for controlling future outbreaks. In this article, we introduce a spatial hybrid model, based on the combination of a stochastic individual based model for between-farm spread with a Susceptible-Infected model for within-farm spread, to simulate the spread of this disease in a given region. Then, this model is validated by comparing the results given by numerical experiments considering the Spanish province of Segovia with other studies based on real outbreaks. Finally, a brief sensitivity analysis of the model parameters is performed.