Explorando las relaciones de la Inversión Extranjera Directa en España desde los años 70: el enfoque ARDL

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En este trabajo se analiza la relación entre la inversión extranjera directa (IED), las exportaciones y el crecimiento económico en España a partir de series temporales anuales correspondientes al período 1970-2018. Para ello se lleva a cabo un contraste de bandas (bound testing), formulando posteriormente un modelo autorregresivo con retardos distribuidos (ARDL). Los resultados confirman una relación a largo plazo entre las variables examinadas. La prueba de causalidad de Granger indica una fuerte causalidad unidireccional entre la IED y las exportaciones con dirección desde la primera hacia la segunda. Además, se obtiene que la causalidad de Granger no es significativa entre la IED y el crecimiento económico y viceversa.
This paper analyzes the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), exports and economic growth in Spain using annual time series data for the period 1970 to 2018. To examine these linkages the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration for the long-run is applied. The results confirm a long-run relationship among the examined variables. The Granger causality test indicates a strong unidirectional causality between FDI and exports with direction from FDI to exports. Besides, the results for the relationship between FDI and economic growth are interesting and indicate that there is no significant Granger causality from FDI to economic growth and vice-versa.
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