Beyond sanctions: what future for Russia?

Abstract

Sanctions have a bad reputation. Either because they are seen as inevitably circumvented, so affecting populations more than governments,or as rarely altering the conduct of those targeted by them. Does this perception apply to Russia, which is subject to considerable sanctions since the beginning of the war in Ukraine? It is not easy to answer this question. Immediate effects can be effective in the short term but much less in the long term if sanctioned countries adjust to the new situation. The opposite may also be true. Short-term effects may be limited but very significant in the long run. In the case of Russia, long-term effects will be more important by far than short-term effects, because they will redefine the place of Russia in the world. Indeed, if Russia does not change its behaviour, it may survive the sanctions. However, its position within the international system will be deeply affected. It will remain a military power. However, its international status will be inevitably degraded. Cut off from the western world, it will become a Eurasian power with limited bargaining power vis-à-vis China. At the global level, this will be a huge change and probably the most consequential effect of the war in Ukraine.