Development of an Effective Oral Vaccine Dissemination Strategy against Classical Swine Fever for Wild Boar in Gifu Prefecture, Japan

Abstract

In September 2018, classical swine fever (CSF) reemerged in Japan after more than a quarter of a century. After the frst no-tifcation on a pig farm, wild boars positive for CSF were found continuously in the surrounding area. Gifu was the frst prefecturein Japan to disseminate oral vaccines to wild boars in March 2019, with vaccines spread to approximately 14,000 sites between 2019and 2020. While these diligent measures seemed to have shown some efectiveness, several vaccine spray sites remained withoutwild boar emergence. Based on the vaccine dissemination records from these periods, this study conducted a statistical analysis topropose more efective vaccine dissemination sites. First, a generalized linear mixed model was used to identify factors correlatedwith wild boar emergence. Ten, two spatial interpolation methods, inverse distance weighted (IDW) and Kriging, were adoptedto create a probability map of wild boar emergence for the entire Gifu Prefecture. Te analysis showed a positive correlationbetween wild boar emergence and the appearance of raccoons, raccoon dogs, and crows as well as road density and wild boardistribution index. In particular, raccoon (OR: 1.83, 95%CI: 1.25–2.68, p < 0.001), raccoon dog (OR: 1.81, 95%CI: 1.25–2.66, p< 0.001), and medium level road density (OR: 1.56, 95%CI: 1.04–2.39, p � 0.04) were strongly correlated with wild boaremergence. Te spatial interpolation approach resulted in better prediction accuracy for the Kriging method than for IDW by theroot mean square error, but both approaches identifed a high wild boar appearance probability area in southeastern Gifu anda low appearance probability area in central Gifu. Here we have demonstrated a tool to efectively disperse oral vaccine to wildlife.