Framing vulnerability and coffee farmers’ behaviour in the context of climate change adaptation in Nicaragua

Abstract

This paper analyses coffee producer’s vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change in Nicaragua. By its geographical position, Nicaragua is one of the countries most affected by climate change, and coffee production is expected to vastly shrink in some critical areas, suitability being reduced by up to 40% in the country. This paper analyses farmer’s perceptions and vulnerability indicators to find which indicators are linked to farmers’ perceived capacity to adapt to climate change, paying special attention to the issue of whether farmers perceive they have any capacity at all to adapt.

The analysis was conducted through a survey to 212 representative farmers jointly with an analysis of vulnerability indicators. A Heckman selection model was estimated to jointly analyse the probability of being able to cope with climate change and the level of adaptive capacity that farmers perceive. We have simulated different policy scenarios considering the sustainable development goals of United Nations in terms of poverty reduction and education concerns. We also analysed the effects of specific programs on education about climate change awareness. Finally, we extend our analysis to a geographical evaluation of the farmer’s perceived vulnerability.

The analysis shows that aspects such as farm size or education levels are relevant for modulating farmers’ perceptions on their own adaptive capacity. Large farm managers find themselves more often able to cope with climate change impacts though they find their capacity to be limited. Farmers that could not rely on rainfall water for their plantations also reported being less able to cope with climate change impacts. Poverty was also found to be correlated to perceptions, as regions lower proportions of inhabitants under poverty levels showed higher levels of confidence in adaptive capacity.