Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally
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2026
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Springer Nature
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Radchuk, V., Jones, C.V., McLean, N. et al. Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally. Nat Commun 17, 479 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68172-8
Abstract
Phenotypic responses to climate affect individual fitness, but the extent to which this translates into effects on population dynamics remains poorly understood. We assemble 213 time series on phenotypes and population sizes of wild vertebrates globally and match them with local climate data. Our meta-analysis shows that morphological traits are mostly climate insensitive. However, phenology is earlier in warmer-than-average years, which contributes positively to population growth in most species. At lower latitudes, temperature has weaker effects on phenology but stronger direct negative effects on population growth, likely because these populations are less capable of tracking climate via plasticity. Variation in the phenology-mediated effect of temperature on population growth cannot be explained by latitude, generation time, migratory mode, or diet. This suggests that simple relationships between species characteristics and population responses to warming may not occur in nature. Instead, we may need to embrace ecological complexity by considering local-scale predictors that capture intra-specific variation.
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This manuscript is a result of the sDiv-funded group sTraitChange and two workshops supported by sDiv (Synthesis Centre at German Center for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Jena-Halle-Leipzig). We are grateful to the many researchers who collected field data and kindly shared them. Among others, we would like to thank Rocky Rockwell, Gregory Brown, I-Jiunn Cheng, Wolf, Vladimir Grosbois, Eric Hansen, Oliver Kruger, Andrew Cockburn, Scott Sillett, Heather Renner, Don Dragoo, William J. Sydeman, Cristina Rodríguez Juarez and the sTraitChange Data Consortium (a full list of consortium members appears in Supplementary Note 1). Without such contributions, this study would have been impossible. Sadly, M.H. and D.v.H. passed away during the development of this manuscript. Their long-term datasets are included in this study, and we are indebted to their invaluable contribution. We thank Thomas Banitz for his participation in the sTraitChange workshops and contributions to this study. We thank the UKCEH National Capability for UK Challenges programme NE/Y006208/1 and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee for financial support. This study is part of the long-term Studies in Ecology and Evolution (SEE-Life) program of the CNRS. We acknowledge funding from NSF ORCC project # 2222057 to S.J., NSF DEB project 0089473 to F.S.D., Research Council of Finland grant SA338180 to T.E., Swedish Research Council grant 2021-03892 to J.H.-S., ERC Starting Grant 639192-ALH to T.E.R., Research Council of Norway (project 223257) and the European Research Council (ERC-2022-AdG-101095997) to B.-E.S., Natural Environment Research Council, UK to J.P., Funding by Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (PAPIIT IN211491, IN-200702-3, IN206610-3, IN205313 and IN205819), Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (81823, 47599, 34500-V, 4722-N9407, 104313) and National Geographic Society (991416) to H.D., Natural Environment Research Council, UK to L.K., BOF-Methusalem grant (48098) to E.M., UID/04292—Centro de Ciências do Mar e do Ambiente (MARE), LA/P/0069/2020 to the Associate Laboratory ARNET, and from the Falkland Islands Government to P.C., NSF DEB-1242510 to F.J., the Spanish Ministry of Science and EU FEDER funds (PID2021-122893NB-C21) to D.O., Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación/AEI and EU-FEDER funds (PID2021-124731NB-I00, PIE202230I133) to M.G., and Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia I.P. via cE3c (DOI: 10.54499/UIDB/00329/2020) and CHANGE (LA/P/0121/2020), national funds, and the co-funding by the FEDER, within the PT2020 Partnership Agreement and Compete 2020 to J.P.G. S.R.B. and K.S.B. acknowledge multiple grants from the National Science Foundation, Smithsonian Institution, and National Geographic Society, as well as support from the Maxwell-Hanrahan Foundation for parrotlet studies. Data from Pointe Géologie were collected with the logistical and financial support from Institut Polaire Français Paul-Emile Victor (IPEV), Terres Australes et Antarctiques Françaises, and Zone Atelier Antarctique et Terres Australes (LTSER France). Data from Montpellier was collected with long-term support from the OSU-OREME. Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.