Unequal dropouts for unequal backgrounds: a full-cohort analysis at Spanish universities

Thumbnail Image

Download

Unequal dropouts for unequal backgrounds a full-cohort analysis at Spanish universities.pdf (2.55 MB)

Official URL

https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09620214.2025.2499509

Full text at PDC

Publication date

2025

Authors

Advisors (or tutors)

Editors

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Taylor & Francis
Citations
Google Scholar
Exportar
DC QDC MarcXML RDF MODS METS ORE-ATOM

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/134629

Citation

Fernández-Mellizo, M., & Bayón-Calvo, S. (2025). Unequal dropouts for unequal backgrounds: a full-cohort analysis at Spanish universities. International Studies in Sociology of Education. https://doi.org/10.1080/09620214.2025.2499509

Abstract

University dropout is a social problem with huge economic and social implications. In Spain, one-third of students withdraw from their studies, which is in line with the average for OECD countries. This study analyses the dropout patterns of a full cohort of undergraduate students in Spanish universities. In contrast to previous studies that used partial data from specific universities and/or survey data, this paper covers all universities in Spain. It is the first time to use official census data from the Integrated University Information System of Spain to provide robust evidence that could be extrapolated to other contexts. The results show that academic performance during the first year of university is linked to unequal dropout patterns depending on the social origin of the students. As in other countries, a compensation effect is detected. Trajectories of low-performing students are heterogeneously translated into dropouts depending on the socioeconomic background of their families.
En España, un tercio de los estudiantes abandona sus estudios, lo que se ajusta a la media de los países de la OCDE. Este estudio analiza los patrones de abandono de una cohorte completa de estudiantes universitarios en universidades españolas. Es la primera vez que se utilizan datos censales oficiales del Sistema Integrado de Información Universitaria (SIIU) de España para proporcionar pruebas sólidas que puedan extrapolarse a otros contextos. Los resultados muestran que el rendimiento académico durante el primer año de universidad está relacionado con patrones de abandono desiguales en función del origen social de los estudiantes. Al igual que en otros países, se detecta un "efecto compensación" de los malos resultados académicos de estudiantes de familias de nivel socioeconómico alto, lo que no ocurre en el caso de familias de nivel socioeconómico bajo.

Research Projects

Organizational Units

Journal Issue

Description

Referencias bibliográficas: • Agasisti, T., & Pérez-Esparrells, C., (2010). Comparing efficiency in a cross-country perspective: The case of Italian and Spanish State universities. Higher Education, 59(1), 85–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-009.9235-8 • Aina, C., (2013). Parental background and university dropout in Italy. Higher Education, 65(4), 437–456. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-012-9554-z • Aina, C., Baici, E., Casalone, G., & Pastore, F., (2022). The determinants of university dropout: A review of the socio-economic literature. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 79, 101102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2021.101102 • Alegre-Sánchez, M. A., Agudo-Arroyo, Y., & Vallés-Segalés, A., (2024). Factores asociados a la persistencia académica del estudiantado universitario becado. Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas, 188(188), 21–38. https://doi.org/10.5477/cis/reis.188.21-38 • Aljohani, O., (2016). A comprehensive review of the major studies and theoretical models of student retention in higher education. Higher Education Studies, 6(2), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.5539/hes.v6n2p1 • Álvarez-Pérez, P. R., López-Aguilar, D., González-Morales, M. O., & Peña-Vázquez, R., (2024). Academic engagement and dropout intention in undergraduate university students. Journal of College Student Retention: Research, Theory & Practice, 26(1), 108–125. https://doi.org/10.1177/15210251211063611 • Araque, F., Roldán, C., & Salguero, A., (2009). Factors influencing university drop out rates. Computers & Education, 53(3), 563–574. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compedu.2009.03.013 • Becker, G., (1962). Investment in human capital. A theoretical analysis. Journal of Political Economy, 70(5), 9–49. https://doi.org/10.1086/258724 • Behr, A., Giese, M., Teguim, H. D., & Theune, K., (2020). Dropping out of university: A literature review. Review of Education, 8(2), 614–652. https://doi.org/10.1002/rev3.3202 • Bernardi, F., (2014). Compensatory advantage as a mechanism of educational inequality: A regression discontinuity based on month of birth. Sociology of Education, 87(2), 74–88. https://doi.org/10.1177/0038040714524258 • Bernardi, F., & Triventi, M., (2020). Compensatory advantage in educational transitions: Trivial or substantial? A simulated scenario analysis. Acta Sociologica, 63(1), 40–62. https://doi.org/10.1177/0001699318780950 • Bernardi, F., & Valdés, M. T., (2021). Sticky educational expectations: A cross-country comparison. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 75, 100624. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rssm.2021.100624 • Blau, P. M., & Duncan, O., (1967). The American occupational structure. Wiley & Sons. • Bourdieu, P., & Passeron, J. C., (1977). Reproduction in education, society and culture. Sage. • Bozick, R., (2007). Making it through the first year of college: The role of students’ economic resources, employment, and living arrangements. Sociology of Education, 80(3), 261–285. https://doi.org/10.1177/003804070708000304 • Breen, R., & Goldthorpe, J. H., (1997). Explaining educational differentials towards a formal rational action theory. Rationality and Society, 9(3), 275–305. https://doi.org/10.1177/104346397009003002 • Casanova, J. R., Cervero, A., Núñez, J. C., Almeida, L. S., & Bernardo, A., (2018). Factors that determine the persistence and dropout of university students. Psicothema, 30(4), 408–414. https://doi.org/10.7334/psicothema2018.155 • Constante-Amores, A., Florenciano, E., Navarro, E., & Fernández-Mellizo, M., (2021). Factores asociados al abandono universitario. Educación XX1, 24(1), 17–44. https://doi.org/10.5944/educxx1.26889 • Contini, D., Cugnata, F., & Scagni, A., (2018). Social selection in higher education. Enrolment, dropout and timely degree attainment in Italy. Higher Education, 75(5), 785–808. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-017-0170-9 • De Angelo, L., & Franke, R., (2016). Social mobility and reproduction for whom? College readiness and first-year retention. American Educational Research Journal, 53(6), 1588–1625. https://doi.org/10.3102/0002831216674805 • de Universidades, M., (2023). Estadística de Universidades, Centros y Titulaciones (EUCT). Curso 2021-2022. Ministerio de Universidades. https://www.universidades.gob.es/estadistica-de-universidades-centros-y-titulaciones-euct/ • Díaz, A., Pérez, M. V., Bernardo, A. B., Cervero, A., & González-Pienda, J. A., (2019). Affective and cognitive variables involved in structural prediction of university dropout. Psicothema, 31(4), 429–436. https://doi.org/10.7334/psicothema2019.124 • Escardíbul, J. O., Pérez-Esparrells, C., De la Torre, E., & Morales, S., (2017). Tuition fees in Spanish Public Universities: A regional convergence analysis. Estudios Sobre Educación, 32, 197–221. https://doi.org/10.15581/004.32.197-221 • Fernández-Mellizo, M., (2022). Análisis del abandono de los estudiantes de grado en las universidades presenciales en España. Ministerio de Universidades. • Gairín, J., Triado, X. M., Feixas, M., Figuera, P., Aparicio-Chueca, P., & Torrado, M., (2014). Student dropout rates in Catalan universities: Profile and motives for disengagement. Quality in Higher Education, 20(2), 165–182. https://doi.org/10.1080/13538322.2014.925230 • Garcés-Delgado, Y., Fernández-Esteban, M., Álvarez-Pérez, P. R., & Conde Vélez, S., (2024). The process of adaptation to higher education studies and its relation to academic dropout. European Journal of Education, 59(3), e12650. https://doi.org/10.1111/ejed.12650 • García, J., & Montalbán, J., (2024). ¿Pueden competir las universidades privadas con las públicas en España? Financiación universitaria y economía política. Papeles de Economía Española, 180, 175–200. • Ghignoni, E., (2017). Family background and university dropouts during the crisis: The case of Italy. Higher Education, 73(1), 127–151. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-016-0004-1 • Ghignoni, E., Croce, G., & D´ambrosio, A., (2019). University dropouts vs high school graduates in the school-to-work transition: Who is doing better?International Journal of Manpower, 40(3), 449–472. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJM-02-2018-0051 • Glocker, D., (2011). The effect of student aid on the duration of study. Economics of Education Review, 30(1), 177–190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2010.08.005 • Goldrick-Rab, S., Harris, D. N., & Trostel, P. A., (2009). Why financial aid matters (or does not) for college success: Toward a new interdisciplinary perspective. In J. C., Smart (Ed.), Higher education: Handbook of theory and research (pp. 1–23). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-9628-0_1 • Hamilton, L. T., (2013). More is more or more is less? Parental financial investments during college. American Sociological Review, 78(1), 70–95. https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122412472680 • Herbaut, E., (2020). Overcoming failure in higher education: Social inequalities and compensatory advantage in dropout patterns. Acta Sociologica, 64(4), 383–402. https://doi.org/10.1177/0001699320920916 • Hermannsson, K., Scandurra, R., & Graziano, M., (2019). Will the regional concentration of tertiary education persist? The case of Europe in a period of rising participation. Regional Studies, Regional Science, 6(1), 539–556. https://doi.org/10.1080/21681376.2019.1680313 • Herzog, S., (2005). Measuring determinants of student return vs. dropout/stopout vs. transfer: A first-to-second year analysis of new freshmen. Research in Higher Education, 46(8), 883–928. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-005-6933-7 • Heublein, U., (2014). Student drop-out from German Higher Education Institutions. European Journal of Education, 49(4), 451–589. https://doi.org/10.1111/ejed.12097 • Ibáñez-Cubillas, P., López-Rodríguez, S., Martínez-Sánchez, I., & Álvarez Rodríguez, J., (2023). Multicausal analysis of the dropout of university students from teacher training studies in Andalusia. Frontiers in Education, 8, 1111620. https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2023.1111620 • Jann, B., (2014). Plotting regression coefficients and other estimates. The Stata Journal, 14(4), 708–737. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X1401400402 • Lassibille, G., & Navarro, G., (2008). Why do higher education students drop out? Evidence from Spain. Education Economics, 16(1), 89–105. https://doi.org/10.1080/09645290701523267 • Lohfink, M. M., & Paulsen, M. B., (2005). Comparing the determinants of persistence for first-generation and continuing-generation students. Journal of College Student Development, 46(4), 409–428. https://doi.org/10.1353/csd.2005.0040 • Manzano, D., Cordero-Coma, J., & Valdés, M. T., (2024). Intensity of educational expansion: A key factor in explaining educational inequality across regions and cohorts in Spain. European Sociological Review, 40(6), 1030–1045. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcae013 • Ministerio de Universidades. (2023). Educabase, Estructura universitaria. https://www.universidades.gob.es/catalogo-de-datos/ • Müller, S., & Schneider, T., (2013). Educational pathways and dropout from higher education in Germany. Longitudinal and Life Course Studies, 4(3), 218–241. https://doi.org/10.14301/llcs.v4i3.251 • Nurmalitasari, Z. A. L., Noor, M. F. M., & Faizuddin Mohd Noor, M., (2023). Factors influencing dropout students in higher education. Education Research International, 2023, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/7704142 • OECD. (2019). Education at a Glance, 2019: OECD indicators. OECD Publishing. • Ortiz, L., & Rodríguez-Menés, J., (2015). The positional value of education and its effect on general and technical fields of education: Educational expansion and occupational returns to education in Spain. European Sociological Research, 32(2), 216–237. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcv085 • Ortiz-Lozano, J. M., Aparicio-Chueca, P., Triadó-Ivern, X. M., & Arroyo-Barrigüete, L., (2024). Early dropout predictors in social sciences and management Degree students. Studies in Higher Education, 49(8), 1303–1316. https://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2023.2264343 • Ortiz-Lozano, J. M., Rua-Vieites, A., Bilbao-Calabuig, P., & Casadesús-Fa, M., (2020). University student retention: Best time and data to identify undergraduate students at risk of dropout. Innovations in Education and Teaching International, 57(1), 74–85. https://doi.org/10.1080/14703297.2018.1502090 • Pascarella, E. T., (1980). Student-faculty informal contact and college outcomes. Review of Educational Research, 50(4), 545–595. https://doi.org/10.3102/00346543050004545 • Rodríguez-Muñiz, L. J., Bernardo, A. B., Esteban, M., Díaz, I., & Conejero, J. A., (2019). Dropout and transfer paths: What are the risky profiles when analyzing university persistence with machine learning techniques?PLOS ONE, 14(6), e0218796. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0218796 • Rovira, S., Puertas, E., Igual, L., & Conejero, J. A., (2017). Data-driven system to predict academic grades and dropout. PLOS ONE, 12(2), e0171207. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0171207 • Scandurra, R., & Calero, J., (2020). How adult skills are configured?International Journal of Educational Research, 99, 101441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijer.2019.06.004 • Stinebrickner, R., & Stinebrickner, T., (2008). The effect of credit constraints on the college drop-out decision: A direct approach using a new panel survey. American Economic Review, 98(5), 2163–2184. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.5.2163 • Tayebi, A., Gómez, J., & Delgado, C., (2021). Analysis on the lack of motivation and dropout in engineering students in Spain. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Access, 9, 66253–66265. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3076751 • Tinto, V., (1975). Dropout from higher education: A theoretical synthesis of recent research. Review of Educational Research, 5(1), 89–125. https://doi.org/10.3102/00346543045001089 • Toutkoushian, R. K., & Paulsen, M., (2016). Economics of higher education: Background, concepts and applications. Springer. • Troiano, H., Torrents, D., & Daza, L., (2021). Compensation for poor performance through social background in tertiary education choices. Studies in Higher Education, 46(6), 1225–1240. https://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2019.1666262 • Vergolini, L., & Vlach, E., (2023). Social origins and university drop-out during the Great Recession: The role of the field of study. Research in Higher Education, 65(1), 124–152. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-023-09741-y • Zepke, N., & Leach, L., (2005). Integration and adaptation: Approaches to the student retention and achievement puzzle. Active Learning in Higher Education, 6(1), 46–59. https://doi.org/10.1177/1469787405049946

UCM subjects

Sociología de la educación (Sociología), Enseñanza universitaria, Pedagogía, Educación

Unesco subjects

6306.05 Sociología de la Educación, 58 Pedagogía, 5312.04 Educación

Keywords

Collections

Artículos