The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe
| dc.contributor.author | Barriopedro Cepero, David | |
| dc.contributor.author | Fischer, Erich | |
| dc.contributor.author | Luterbacher, Jürg | |
| dc.contributor.author | Trigo, Ricardo M. | |
| dc.contributor.author | García Herrera, Ricardo Francisco | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-06-20T03:38:00Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2023-06-20T03:38:00Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2011-04-08 | |
| dc.description | This study was supported by the EU/FP6 project CIRCE (#036961) (D. B., J.L., R. T., and R. G.), the Instituto Dom Luiz-Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade de Lisboa project ENAC (PTDC/AAC-CLI/103567/2008) (D. B., R. T.), the Swiss National Science Foundation (Swiss National Center of Competence in Research-Climate) (E. F.), the EU/FP7 project ACQWA (#212250) (J.L.), the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft project PRIME (LU1608/1-1, AOBJ: 568460) within the Priority Program 'INTERDYNAMIK' (J.L.), the project "Historical climatology of the Middle East based on Arabic sources back to ad 800" (LU 1608/2-1 AOBJ 575150) (J.L.) and the project "Climate Change and Extreme Weather in Hesse-Analysis of observation data and ensemble projections for the 21st century" funded by the Hessian Centre on Climate Change and Geology (J.L.). The ENSEMBLES data used in this work was funded by the European Union/FP6 project ENSEMBLES (#505539), whose support is gratefully acknowledged. 20th Century and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalyses data were provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)/Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. | |
| dc.description.abstract | The summer of 2010 was exceptionally warm in eastern Europe and large parts of Russia. We provide evidence that the anomalous 2010 warmth that caused adverse impacts exceeded the amplitude and spatial extent of the previous hottest summer of 2003. "Mega-heatwaves" such as the 2003 and 2010 events likely broke the 500-year-long seasonal temperature records over approximately 50% of Europe. According to regional multi-model experiments, the probability of a summer experiencing mega-heatwaves will increase by a factor of 5 to 10 within the next 40 years. However, the magnitude of the 2010 event was so extreme that despite this increase, the likelihood of an analog over the same region remains fairly low until the second half of the 21st century. | |
| dc.description.department | Depto. de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica | |
| dc.description.faculty | Fac. de Ciencias Físicas | |
| dc.description.refereed | TRUE | |
| dc.description.sponsorship | EU | |
| dc.description.sponsorship | Instituto Dom Luiz-Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade de Lisboa | |
| dc.description.sponsorship | Swiss National Science Foundation (Swiss National Center of Competence in Research-Climate) | |
| dc.description.sponsorship | Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft | |
| dc.description.sponsorship | Hessian Centre on Climate Change and Geology | |
| dc.description.status | pub | |
| dc.eprint.id | https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/24287 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1126/science.1201224 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 0036-8075 | |
| dc.identifier.officialurl | http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1201224 | |
| dc.identifier.relatedurl | http://www.sciencemag.org/ | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/44103 | |
| dc.issue.number | 6026 | |
| dc.journal.title | Science | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | |
| dc.page.final | 224 | |
| dc.page.initial | 220 | |
| dc.publisher | American Association Advancement Science | |
| dc.relation.projectID | 036961 | |
| dc.relation.projectID | 212250 | |
| dc.relation.projectID | 505539 | |
| dc.relation.projectID | PTDC/AAC-CLI/103567/2008 | |
| dc.relation.projectID | LU1608/1-1 | |
| dc.relation.projectID | AOBJ: 568460 | |
| dc.relation.projectID | LU 1608/2-1 | |
| dc.relation.projectID | AOBJ 575150 | |
| dc.rights.accessRights | restricted access | |
| dc.subject.cdu | 52 | |
| dc.subject.keyword | Climate-change | |
| dc.subject.keyword | Variability | |
| dc.subject.keyword | Reanalysis | |
| dc.subject.keyword | Heatwaves | |
| dc.subject.ucm | Astrofísica | |
| dc.subject.ucm | Astronomía (Física) | |
| dc.subject.ucm | Física atmosférica | |
| dc.subject.unesco | 2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera | |
| dc.title | The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe | |
| dc.type | journal article | |
| dc.volume.number | 332 | |
| dcterms.references | 1. C. Schär et al., Nature 427, 332 (2004). 2. E. M. Fischer, C. Schär, Clim. Dyn. 33, 917 (2009). 3. J. H. Christensen et al., in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon et al., Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 2007). 4. F. Giorgi, X. Q. Bi, J. Pal, Clim. Dyn. 23, 839 (2004). 5. A. Klein-Tank, G. Können, F. Selten, Int. J. Climatol. 25, 1 (2005). 6. P. M. Della-Marta, M. R. Haylock, J. Luterbacher, H. Wanner, J. Geophys. Res. 112, (D15), D15103 (2007). 7. G. A. Meehl, C. Tebaldi, Science 305, 994 (2004). 8. E. M. Fischer, C. Schär, Nat. Geosci. 3, 398 (2010). 9. M. Beniston et al., Clim. Change 81, (S1), 71 (2007). 10. F. G. Kuglitsch et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L04802 (2010). 11. J. Luterbacher, D. Dietrich, E. Xoplaki, M. Grosjean, H. Wanner, Science 303, 1499 (2004). 12. R. García-Herrera, J. Díaz, R. M. Trigo, J. Luterbacher, E. M. Fischer, Crit. Rev. Environ. Sci. Technol. 40, 267 (2010). 13. E. Black, M. Blackburn, G. Harrison, B. Hoskins, J. Methven, Weather 59, 217 (2004). 14. J. M. Robine et al., C. R. Biol. 331, 171 (2008). 15. R. Kistler et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82, 247 (2001). 16. G. P. Compo et al., Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 1 (2011). 17. R. M. Trigo, R. García Herrera, J. Díaz, I. F. Trigo, M. A. Valente, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L10701 (2005). 18. E. Xoplaki, J. F. González Rouco, J. Luterbacher, H. Wanner, Clim. Dyn. 20, 723 (2003). 19. E. M. Fischer, S. I. Seneviratne, D. Lüthi, C. Schär, Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L06707 (2007). 20. R. Vautard et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L07711 (2007). 21. J. Hansen, R. Ruedy, J. Glascoe, M. Sato, J. Geophys. Res. 104, (D24), 30997 (1999). 22. P. van der Linden, J. F. B. Mitchell, “ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project” (Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK, 2009). 23. S. I. Seneviratne, D. Lüthi, M. Litschi, C. Schär, Nature 443, 205 (2006). 24. G. Lenderink, A. van Ulden, B. van den Hurk, E. van Meijgaard, Clim. Change 81, (S1), 233 (2007). | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication | 71d8f23d-ceaf-4f5f-8434-10a193bc3835 | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication | 194b877d-c391-483e-9b29-31a99dff0a29 | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery | 71d8f23d-ceaf-4f5f-8434-10a193bc3835 |
Download
Original bundle
1 - 1 of 1