Modeled global invasive potential of Asian gypsy moths, Lymantria dispar

Abstract

Asian populations of gypsy moths, Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), remain poorly characterized – indeed, they are not presently accorded any formal taxonomic status within the broader species. Their ecology is similarly largely uncharacterized in the literature, except by assumption that it will resemble that of European populations. We developed ecological niche models specific to Asian populations of the species, which can in turn be used to identify a potential geographic distributional area for the species. We demonstrated statistically significant predictivity of distributional patterns within the East Asian range of these populations; projecting the Asian ecological niche model to Europe, correspondence with European distributions was generally good, although some differences may exist; projecting the ecological niche model globally, we characterized a likely potential invasive distribution of this set of populations across the temperate zone of both Northern and Southern Hemisphere.