Mechanistic simulations predict that thermal and hydrological effects of climate change on Mediterranean trout cannot be offset by adaptive behaviour, evolution, and increased food production

Abstract

Streamflow is a main driver of fish population dynamics and is projected to decrease in much of the northern hemisphere, especially in the Mediterranean region, due to climate change. However, predictions of future climate effects on cold-water freshwater fish populations have typically focused only on the ecological consequences of increasing temperatures, overlooking the concurrent and interacting effects of climate-driven changes in streamflow regimes. Here, we present simulations that contrasted the consequences of changes in thermal regime alone versus the combined effects of changes in thermal regime and streamflow for resident trout populations in distinct river types with different sensitivities to climatic change (low-altitude main river vs. high-altitude headwaters). We additionally assessed the buffering effect of increased food production that may be linked to warming. We used an eco-genetic individual-based model that integrates the behavioural and physiological effects of extrinsic environmental drivers –temperature and flow– with intrinsic dynamics – density-dependence, phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary responses – across the entire trout life cycle, with Mediterranean brown trout Salmo trutta as the model species. Our simulations indicated that: (1) Hydrological change is a critical dimension of climate change for the persistence of trout populations, in that neither river type supported viable populations under strong rates of flow change, even under scenarios of increased food production. (2) Climate-change-related environmental change most affects the largest, oldest trout via increased metabolic costs and decreased energy inputs. In both river types, populations persisted under extreme warming alone but became dominated by younger, smaller fish. (3) Density-dependent, plastic and evolutionary changes in phenology and life-history traits provide trout populations with important resilience to warming, but strong concurrent shifts in streamflow could exceed the buffering conferred by such intrinsic dynamics.