Multidecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnection with Europe in late 2 winter: analysis of CMIP5 models
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2016
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American Meteorological Society
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Abstract
Many studies point to a robust ENSO signature on the North Atlantic-European (NAE) sector associated with a downstream effect of Rossby wave trains. Some of these works also address a nonstationary behavior of the aforementioned link, but only few have explored the possible modulating factors. In this study the internal causes within the ocean-atmosphere coupled system influencing the tropospheric ENSO-Euro-Mediterranean rainfall teleconnection have been analyzed. To this aim, unforced long-term preindustrial control simulations from 18 different CMIP5 models have been used. A nonstationary impact of ENSO on Euro-Mediterranean rainfall, being spatially consistent with the observational one, is found. This variable feature is explained by a changing ENSO- elated Rossby wave propagation from the tropical Pacific to the NAE sector, which, in turn, is modulated by multidecadal variability of the climatological jet streams associated with the underlying sea surface temperature (SST). The results, therefore, indicate a modulation of the ENSO-Euro-Mediterranean rainfall teleconnection by the internal (and multidecadal) variability of the ocean-atmosphere coupled system.
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© American Meteorological Society.
The authors thank the three anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments, which greatly helped to improve the manuscript. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP and U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We also thanks Julian Villamayor Moreno for his help in downloading all the CMIP data needed for this study.
This study was supported by the European project PREFACE (ref.603521), and the Spanish projects TRACS (CGL2009-10285) and MULCLIVAR (CGL2012-38923-C02-01). In particular, JLP thanks the FPI grant (BES-2010-042234) associated with the TRACS project.