The Potential Role of CA-125 as a Biomarker for Short-Term Mortality Risk in Patients with Acute Symptomatic Pulmonary Embolism

Abstract

Background: Antigen carbohydrate 125 (CA-125) is a complex glycoprotein extensively studied as a prognostic biomarker in heart failure, yet its potential role in the short-term prognosis of an acute pulmonary embolism (PE) remains unexplored. Methods: In this observational, prospective, single-center study, consecutive patients aged 18 and older with a confirmed acute symptomatic PE and no history of prior anticoagulant therapy were enrolled. Primary and secondary objectives aimed to assess the prognostic capacity of CA-125 at PE diagnosis for 30-day mortality and major bleeding, respectively. Results: A total of 164 patients were included (mean age 69.8 years, SD 17), with 56.1% being male. Within 30 days, 17 patients (10.4%) died and 9 patients (5.5%) suffered major bleeding. ROC curve analysis for 30-day mortality yielded an area under the curve of 0.69 (95% CI 0.53–0.85) with an optimal CA-125 cut-off point of 20 U/mL and a negative predictive value of 96%. Multivariate analysis revealed a significant association between CA-125 levels exceeding 20 U/mL and 30-day mortality (adjusted odds ratio 4.95; 95% CI 1.61–15.2) after adjusting for age, cancer, NT-proBNP > 600 ng/mL, and the simplified pulmonary embolism severity index score. Survival analysis for 30-day mortality exhibited a hazard ratio of 5.47 (95% CI 1.78–16.8). No association between CA-125 levels and 30-day major bleeding was found. Conclusions: CA-125 emerges as a promising surrogate biomarker for short-term mortality prediction in an acute symptomatic PE. Future investigations should explore the integration of CA-125 into PE mortality prediction scores to enhance the prognostic accuracy in this patient population.