An update on the future Flyby of Gliese 710 to the solar system using Gaia DR3: Flyby parameters reproduced, uncertainties reduced

Abstract

Charting the near-future motion of known stars through the Galaxy, none will pass closer to the Sun than Gliese 710. Here, we present an updated analysis of this upcoming flyby using Gaia DR3 data as well as the latest planetary ephemerides. Our new estimate reproduces the nominal values of those already published, but with reduced associated uncertainties. The distribution of distances of closest approach has a median value of 0.052 pc with a 90% probability of coming within 0.048–0.056 pc of the Sun; the associated time of perihelion passage is determined to be between 1.26–1.33 Myr with 90% confidence, with a most likely value of 1.29 Myr.