Dengue, Chikungunya, and Zika: Spatial and Temporal Distribution in Rio de Janeiro State, 2015–2019

Abstract

Simultaneous spatial circulation of urban arboviral diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, is a major challenge. In this ecological study of urban arboviruses performed from 2015 to 2019, we analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics of these arboviruses in all 92 municipalities and nine health regions of Rio de Janeiro state. Annual cumulative incidences are presented for all three arboviruses throughout the study period. Spatial analyses of the three studied arboviruses showed distinct behaviors among municipalities and health regions. Co-circulation of the three arboviruses in the state and a heterogeneous spatiotemporal pattern was observed for each disease and region, with dengue having a higher annual incidence during the five years of the study, as well as two consecutive epidemic years in the state. The increase in transmission in different regions of the state in one year culminated in an epidemic in the state in the following year. A high annual cumulative incidence of chikungunya occurred in municipalities from 2017 to 2019 and of Zika only in 2016. Some municipalities with higher population densities showed higher incidences for some arboviruses and appeared to contribute to the dissemination to cities of lower demographic density and maintenance of these urban arboviruses. Thus, regions recording increased incidences of the three diseases in their territories for long periods should be considered municipal poles, as they initiated and sustained high transmission within their region.