Are ASEAN exports persistent? An analysis with data from 1950 to 2022.

Abstract

This research paper deals with the analysis of exports in the ASEAN-10 zone and the influence that external shocks have had on them. Using fractional integration methods on the ten ASEAN countries’ annual exports from 1950 to 2021, we observe that the evaluated series are very persistent with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1 in all cases except for Lao. Comparing these results with respect to those in the World series, the new series still reveal high degrees of persistence showing no evidence of convergence for any single country. Finally, convergence within the ASEAN countries is also examined and evidence of convergence is found here in the cases of Lao, Malaysia and Singapore. Some policy recommendations are provided at the end of the paper.