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Future trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in CCMI models

dc.contributor.authorÁbalos Álvarez, Marta
dc.contributor.authorOrbe, Clara
dc.contributor.authorKinnison, Douglas E.
dc.contributor.authorPlummer, David
dc.contributor.authorOman, Luke D.
dc.contributor.authorJöckel, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorMorgenstern, Olaf
dc.contributor.authorGarcia, Rolando R.
dc.contributor.authorZeng, Guang
dc.contributor.authorStone, Kane A.
dc.contributor.authorDameris, Martin
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-18T11:51:08Z
dc.date.available2024-09-18T11:51:08Z
dc.date.issued2020-06-11
dc.descriptionProgram Atracción de Talento de la Comunidad de Madrid (fund no. 2016-T2/AMB-1405) Spanish National Project STEADY (project no. CGL2017-83198-R).
dc.description.abstractOne of the key questions in the air quality and climate sciences is how tropospheric ozone concentrations will change in the future. This will depend on two factors: changes in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and changes in tropospheric chemistry. Here we aim to identify robust changes in STT using simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) under a common climate change scenario (RCP6.0). We use two idealized stratospheric tracers to isolate changes in transport: stratospheric ozone (O_(3)S), which is exactly like ozone but has no chemical sources in the troposphere, and st80, a passive tracer with fixed volume mixing ratio in the stratosphere. We find a robust increase in the tropospheric columns of these two tracers across the models. In particular, stratospheric ozone in the troposphere is projected to increase 10 %–16 % by the end of the 21st century in the RCP6.0 scenario. Future STT is enhanced in the subtropics due to the strengthening of the shallow branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) in the lower stratosphere and of the upper part of the Hadley cell in the upper troposphere. The acceleration of the deep branch of the BDC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and changes in eddy transport contribute to increased STT at high latitudes. These STT trends are caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) increases, while phasing out of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) does not lead to robust transport changes. Nevertheless, the decline of ODS increases the reservoir of ozone in the lower stratosphere, which results in enhanced STT of O3S at middle and high latitudes. A higher emission scenario (RCP8.5) produces stronger STT trends, with increases in tropospheric column O_(3)S more than 3 times larger than those in the RCP6.0 scenario by the end of the 21st century.
dc.description.departmentDepto. de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica
dc.description.facultyFac. de Ciencias Físicas
dc.description.fundingtypePagado por el autor
dc.description.refereedTRUE
dc.description.sponsorshipComunidad de Madrid
dc.description.sponsorshipMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad (España)
dc.description.statuspub
dc.identifier.citationAbalos, M., Orbe, C., Kinnison, D. E., Plummer, D., Oman, L. D., Jöckel, P., Morgenstern, O., Garcia, R. R., Zeng, G., Stone, K. A., and Dameris, M.: Future trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in CCMI models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6883–6901, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020, 2020.
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020
dc.identifier.essn1680-7324
dc.identifier.issn1680-7316
dc.identifier.officialurlhttps://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020
dc.identifier.relatedurlhttps://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/6883/2020/
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/108232
dc.issue.number11
dc.journal.titleAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics
dc.language.isoeng
dc.page.final6901
dc.page.initial6883
dc.publisherEuropean Geosciences Union
dc.relation.projectID2016-T2/AMB-1405
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/CGL2017-83198-R/ES/VARIABILIDAD CLIMATICA Y MECANISMOS DINAMICOS DE LOS EPISODIOS DE ESTANCAMIENTO ATMOSFERICO EN LA REGION EURO-MEDITERRANEA/
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.accessRightsopen access
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject.cdu551.51
dc.subject.keywordChemistry-climate model
dc.subject.keywordOzone-depleting substances
dc.subject.keywordExchange
dc.subject.keyword21st-century
dc.subject.keywordDrivers
dc.subject.ucmFísica atmosférica
dc.subject.unesco2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
dc.titleFuture trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in CCMI models
dc.typejournal article
dc.type.hasVersionVoR
dc.volume.number20
dspace.entity.typePublication
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationc9022703-3289-47be-a720-a8063f07ca36
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryc9022703-3289-47be-a720-a8063f07ca36

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