Potential SST drivers for Chlorophyll-a variability in the Alboran Sea: a source for seasonal predictability?

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dc.contributor.authorLópez-Parages, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorGómara Cardalliaguet, Íñigo
dc.contributor.authorRodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén
dc.contributor.authorGarcía Lafuente, Jesús
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-22T12:37:02Z
dc.date.available2023-06-22T12:37:02Z
dc.date.issued2022-10-03
dc.description© 2022 The Authors. The authors want to thank Pablo Duran-Rodrıguez for the integration of the statistical python code in a user-friendly tool, which has let us to perform, in an efficient way, the different simulations done in this paper. Thanks are also due to Irene Nadal for her contribution in designing Figure 1 and to Simone Sammartinofor useful discussions. Finally, we would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions and advice, which considerably improved the original manuscript. JL-P was supported by a Postdoctoral Fellowship from the Research Own Plan of the University of Malaga (“Ayuda de Incorporacion de Doctores 2020”). Thanks are also given to the projects EU-H2020 TRIATLAS (No 817578) and CARMEN (PCI2021-122061-2B), the latter funded by both the Spanish Government (MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033) and the European Union (NextGenerationEU/PRTR).
dc.description.abstractThis study investigates the link between large-scale variability modes of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration in spring along the northern flank of the Alboran Sea. To this aim, surface satellite-derived products of SST and Chl-a, together with atmospheric satellite variables, are used. Our results indicate that both the tropical North Atlantic and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could trigger the development of anomalous distribution patterns of Chl-a in spring in northern Alboran. This anomalous feature of Chl-a is, in turn, associated with the alteration of the usual upwelling taking place in northern Alboran at that time of the year. The skill of the related SST signals, over the tropical North Atlantic and the tropical Pacific, as predictors of the aforementioned Chl-aresponse inAlboran,has also been assessed through a statistical prediction model with leave-one-out cross-validation. Our results confirm the predictive skill of ENSO to realistically estimate the coastal Chl-a concentration in spring in northern Alboran. In particular, during the El Niño/La Niña years, this Chl-a response can be robustly predicted with 4 months in advance. On the other hand, the tropical North Atlantic SSTs allow to significantly predict, up to 7 months in advance, the Chl-a concentration in spring offshore, in particular by the north of the Western andtheEastern Alboran gyres. The results presented here could contribute to develop a future seasonal forecasting tool of upwelling variability and living marine resources in northern Alboran.
dc.description.departmentDepto. de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica
dc.description.facultyFac. de Ciencias Físicas
dc.description.refereedTRUE
dc.description.sponsorshipPostdoctoral Fellowship from the Research Own Plan of the University of Malaga (“Ayuda de Incorporacion de Doctores 2020”)
dc.description.sponsorshipSpanish Government projects EU-H2020 TRIATLAS and CARMEN
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Union (NextGenerationEU/PRTR)
dc.description.statuspub
dc.eprint.idhttps://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/76561
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fmars.2022.931832
dc.identifier.issn2296-7745
dc.identifier.officialurlhttps://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.931832
dc.identifier.relatedurlhttps://www.frontiersin.org/
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/72934
dc.journal.titleFrontiers in Marine Science
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherFrontiers Media
dc.relation.projectID817578
dc.relation.projectIDPCI2021-122061-2B
dc.relation.projectIDMCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033
dc.rightsAtribución 3.0 España
dc.rights.accessRightsopen access
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
dc.subject.cdu52
dc.subject.keywordEl-Nino
dc.subject.keywordInterannual variability
dc.subject.keywordAtlantic
dc.subject.keywordPhytoplankton
dc.subject.keywordPatterns
dc.subject.keywordPacific
dc.subject.keywordOscillation
dc.subject.keywordCirculation
dc.subject.keywordImpact
dc.subject.keywordEnso
dc.subject.ucmFísica atmosférica
dc.subject.unesco2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
dc.titlePotential SST drivers for Chlorophyll-a variability in the Alboran Sea: a source for seasonal predictability?
dc.typejournal article
dc.volume.number9
dspace.entity.typePublication
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationdf61414b-499d-4304-bb30-6b91e270b321
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationd74aa455-1e6d-4a25-8ac2-348f2dbcdccf
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoverydf61414b-499d-4304-bb30-6b91e270b321
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