A stochastic SVIR model with imperfect vaccine and external source of infection

Abstract

A stochastic SIR (Susceptible - Infected - Recovered) type model, with external source of infection, is considered for the spread of a disease in a finite population of constant size. Our interest is in studying this process in the situation where some individuals have been vaccinated prior to the start of the epidemic, but where the efficacy of the vaccine to prevent infection is not perfect. The evolution of the epidemic is represented by an absorbing three-dimensional continuous-time Markov chain. We focus on analysing the time for a threshold number of individuals to become infected, and carry out a global sensitivity analysis for the impact of varying model parameters on the summary statistic of interest.