Assessment of the sensitivity of the bovine tuberculosis eradication program in a high prevalence region of Spain using scenario tree modeling

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dc.contributor.authorDe la Cruz, María Luisa
dc.contributor.authorPozo Piñol, Pilar
dc.contributor.authorGrau, Anna
dc.contributor.authorNacar, Jesús
dc.contributor.authorBezos Garrido, Javier
dc.contributor.authorPérez, Andrés
dc.contributor.authorDomínguez Rodríguez, Lucas José
dc.contributor.authorSáez, José Luís
dc.contributor.authorMínguez-González, Olga
dc.contributor.authorJuan Ferré, Lucía De
dc.contributor.authorÁlvarez Sánchez, Julio
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-16T10:45:47Z
dc.date.available2024-01-16T10:45:47Z
dc.date.issued2019-11-05
dc.descriptionFinanciación: MINECO: DI-15-08098; IJCI-2015-24805; RYC-2016-20422; Comunidad de Madrid: S2013/ABI-2747; MiCIIN: RTI2018-096010-B-C22; Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
dc.description.abstractIn spite of the efforts invested to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle, the disease is still present in several developed countries, including Spain. Among the factors related with disease persistence in high prevalence areas, the lack of sensitivity of the screening test for detection of infected herds [single intradermal tuberculin (SIT) test] can play a major role. Here, a scenario tree model mimicking the diagnostic test scheme in place in the region of Castilla y Leon (Spain) was developed to estimate the probability of detecting bTB in an infected-non detected officially tuberculosis free (OTF) herd (herd sensitivity, HSe). In order to do so the probability of detecting at least one positive animal in the SIT test with/without post-mortem (detection of lesions and culture) confirmation in an infected herd was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation through @ RISK (Palisade Co, NY, USA). Uncertainty on the accuracy of the diagnostic tests was introduced in the model using distributions based on the literature. The performance of the model was evaluated by comparing the predicted number of SIT/post-mortem positive animals in infected herds with those observed in newly detected bTB-infected herds in the region in 2011–2015. The estimated HSe of the SIT test was 76.2% (95% probability interval: 19.8–97.6). According to the model, bTB infection would be then confirmed through culture in 65.3% (95% PI: 50.0–82.3) of the herds detected through the SIT test, so that overall the proportion of infected-non detected OTF herds in which the infection could be confirmed after the initial SIT test was 49.6% (95% PI: 9.75–80.3). The predicted HSe of both SIT test and culture was directly correlated with herd size. Results from the model suggest a moderate but highly variable HSe of the current surveillance system in place for bTB detection in OTF herds located in high prevalence areas, that could be maximized by performing multiple tests within a year as indicated in the Spanish eradication program (with a median SIT HSe of 87% when two consecutive tests were considered). In addition, these results highlight the usefulness of performing subsequent SIT tests to rule out infection in SIT-positive herds even when the causative agent cannot be isolated.
dc.description.departmentDepto. de Sanidad Animal
dc.description.facultyCentro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET)
dc.description.facultyFac. de Veterinaria
dc.description.refereedTRUE
dc.description.sponsorshipMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad
dc.description.sponsorshipComunidad de Madrid
dc.description.sponsorshipMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación
dc.description.statuspub
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.prevetmed.2019.104800
dc.identifier.essn1873-1716
dc.identifier.issn0167-5877
dc.identifier.officialurlhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167587718306676?via%3Dihub
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/93315
dc.issue.number104800
dc.journal.titlePreventive Veterinary Medicine
dc.language.isoeng
dc.page.final10
dc.page.initial1
dc.publisherELSEVIER SCI LTD
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.accessRightsrestricted access
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subject.keywordBovine tuberculosis
dc.subject.keywordCattle
dc.subject.keywordHerd sensitivity
dc.subject.keywordScenario tree modelling
dc.subject.keywordDiagnosis
dc.subject.keywordSurveillance
dc.subject.ucmVeterinaria
dc.subject.unesco3109 Ciencias Veterinarias
dc.titleAssessment of the sensitivity of the bovine tuberculosis eradication program in a high prevalence region of Spain using scenario tree modeling
dc.typejournal article
dc.type.hasVersionAM
dc.volume.number173
dspace.entity.typePublication
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