Patterns, predictors, and outcome of the trajectories of depressive symptoms from adolescence to adulthood

Abstract

Background: The long-term trajectory of depressive symptoms has a heterogeneous pattern. Identifying factors associated with different trajectories and outcomes may have important theoretical and clinical implications. This study explored depressive symptom trajectory patterns from adolescence to adulthood, and their relationship with subsequent mental health problems. Method: Eight hundred and sixteen participants (58.8% girls; M = 16.58 years old at baseline, SD = 1.21) from a large community sample were interviewed four times during adolescence and emerging adulthood. Depressive symptoms were also assessed. Heterogeneous symptom trajectories were identified using latent class mixed modelling. Logistic regression was used for prediction of emotional and drug use disorder diagnosis over age 30. Results: Three trajectories of depressive symptoms were identified: “decreasing symptom” (15.1% of participants), “U-shaped symptom” (i.e., initially decreasing and then increasing; 6.1% of participants), and the “normative” (low; 78.8% of adolescents). Predictors of the U-shaped trajectory were high level of loneliness and state anxiety, presence of an emotional disorder, and low involvement in physical exercise at baseline. This trajectory membership predicted the development of anxiety disorders over age 30. Conclusions: Long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms are heterogeneous, with each trajectory having different predictors and are associated with different outcomes during adulthood. KEYWORDS Depression, anxiety, trajectories, adolescence, developmental trajectories