What to expect from assisted reproductive technologies? Experts' forecasts for the next two decades

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dc.contributor.authorAlon, Ido
dc.contributor.authorGuimón, José
dc.contributor.authorUrbanos Garrido, Rosa María
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-17T12:31:10Z
dc.date.available2023-06-17T12:31:10Z
dc.date.issued2019-08-30
dc.description.abstractIn recent years, In-Vitro Fertilization (IVF), Pre-implantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD) and genetic engineering (GE) have developed substantially, raising hopes but also concerns. Relying on a panel of experts, this article explores expected scenarios related to the evolution of Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ART), thus helping to ascertain which expectations might materialize over the next twenty years. We use the Delphi method, whereby forecasts are extracted from a survey, and combine it with in-depth interviews with experienced doctors and geneticists in Israel and Spain. Our results reveal prospects for an increase in birth rates per InVitro Fertilization (IVF) cycle, an improvement in treatment quality, and advances in reproductive genetics. Experts predict that within 20 years, 14-19% of births in their countries will result from IVF, among which 34-47% will involve PGD. However, they remain skeptic regarding the increase in the number of oocytes required for an expanded PGD, thus skeptic regarding inflated hopes or dystopian scenarios and indicating that GE by CRISPR/Cas could set the tone. We conclude that ART’s market development in the next two decades will continue to be mainly linked to growing infertility rates and improvement in outcomes, while reproductive genetics will advance but remain secondary.
dc.description.departmentDepto. de Economía Aplicada, Pública y Política
dc.description.facultyFac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales
dc.description.refereedTRUE
dc.description.statuspub
dc.eprint.idhttps://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/61232
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119722
dc.identifier.issn0040-1625
dc.identifier.officialurlhttps://www-sciencedirect-com.bucm.idm.oclc.org/science/article/pii/S0040162519300587
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/12370
dc.issue.number119722
dc.journal.titleTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherElsevier Inc.
dc.rights.accessRightsrestricted access
dc.subject.keywordFuture prospect
dc.subject.keywordReproduction
dc.subject.keywordTechnology adoption.
dc.subject.ucmMedicina
dc.subject.ucmSalud pública (Medicina)
dc.subject.ucmEconomía pública
dc.subject.unesco32 Ciencias Médicas
dc.subject.unesco3212 Salud Pública
dc.titleWhat to expect from assisted reproductive technologies? Experts' forecasts for the next two decades
dc.typejournal article
dc.volume.number148
dspace.entity.typePublication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication261e1806-d820-4f6c-ba95-daf94f2e9bb9
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery261e1806-d820-4f6c-ba95-daf94f2e9bb9
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