Seismic and Flood Risk Evaluation in Spain from Historical Data

Abstract

Floods and earthquakes are two of the natural processes that cause in Spain economic and social losses, with major effects on the first ones. In order to evaluate the risk (social damages and economical losses) associated with these processes, the available historical data and information on happened events (from bibliographical and documentary sources, press, files, data bases, etc.) has been compiled and analysed exhaustively, including also the information related to the economic and social losses (damages, victims, direct and indirect economical losses, governmental and insurance companies data, etc.). The analysis of the historical information has allowed to estimate the distribution and extent of the damages and losses due to floods and earthquakes in Spain, as well as the vulnerability of the national territory. The estimation of the damages and losses for the next three decades has been approached from the study of the flood and earthquake potential hazard in Spain, estimating the probabilities of occurrence of these processes with different magnitude/ intensity for the period of reference. The present economic and social conditions of the territory have been considered, carrying out probabilistic estimations and valuing hypothetical situations of potential damage scenarios. The results allow to know the hazard (probability of occurrence of processes of certain magnitude) and risk degree (potential damages and losses) of every municipality of the country.